Stocks are simple. All you do is buy shares in a great business for less than the business is intrinsically worth, with management of the highest integrity and ability. Then you own those shares forever. I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

January 17, 2008

8-17大冲击重现

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恒生指數這幾天真正上演“完美风暴”,外资大鳄借美国经济衰退的非常差气氛,打压蓝筹股,中国人寿更是从从37.5的低位跌到32.8。 中国移动更加跌倒115, 港交所388更是跌到170元。

这次下跌是我意想之外,本来以为它可以沿100天线守住,现在看来后市可能会在24000-27000之间波动。

 

四年来的牛市,自8,331點開始之上升,筆者現指每潮中期浪底作筆錄,隨後之每次中期調整浪底如下10,917、14,189、15,204、18,659、19,386,由此可見,總的形態是仍保持步步向上之勢,而此次自31,958點開始之回調,暫見底於今早的23,957點,是否这次就是最低点?还是接下来几天有冲击250天线的可能?拭目以待。

 

自从去年7月以来每月波幅24%, 15.5%, 19.5%, 23%, 15%, 16%. 可见最低都是15%, 本月已经完成15%。

25131-25823的裂口必然收复,很可能就在明天。

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