Stocks are simple. All you do is buy shares in a great business for less than the business is intrinsically worth, with management of the highest integrity and ability. Then you own those shares forever. I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

January 29, 2009

温家宝: 中国经济可以看到一些复苏的迹象

温家宝说,这场金融危机给中国经济造成严重冲击。去年经济增长百分之九,但是第四季度的增长只有不到百分之七,经济增长下行的压力在加大。
正是在这种情况下,中国政府近日提出,今年经济增长要保持在百分之八左右。
“坦率地说,今年经济要实现百分之八的目标,是异常困难。”温家宝说,“但是经过努力,还是可以达到的。”
他随后简陈理由,中国有比较稳健的金融体系,在这次危机中受到的损害较小。由于中国推行金融体制改革,特别是建立现代银行体制,几家大银行的不良贷款率大约只占百分之二点五。
温家宝说:“从去年十二月下旬开始,中国经济可以看到一些复苏的迹象。虽然很小,但是带来了希望。”
喜欢用数字说明问题的温家宝,当天仍旧引用数字为例。
他列举说,中国去年十一月份的新增贷款是四千亿人民币,十二月份是七千亿,今年前二十天达到九千亿。一些工业品价格开始回升,企业库存和港口积压的货物开始减少。在消费方面,就拿春节这一天来说,比去年同期增长了百分之二十一。
而在外需收缩的形势下,中国还有广阔的内需市场,包括需求潜力很大的农村。“中国正处在工业化和城镇化进程中特别是存在着地区差异和城乡差异,如果你到农村去看看,用一句通俗的话说,就是‘多少东西也填不满’。”
温家宝最后表示,为了实现经济增长目标,中国政府必须出手要快、出拳要重、措施要准、工作要实,把问题抑制在萌芽状态。

January 20, 2009

曹仁超:经过2009年的上上下下,到2010年经济方向清晰的时候,内地的牛市就会重临的

曹仁超: 在整个资本市场发展,内地跟西方国家尤其以美国为首,两个是刚刚相反的,美国资本市场的发展就是他们本身的收入是无法应付开支的,可以说入不敷支,如何让入不敷支的情况让人们继续消费呢?就令房地产拼命的上升,当资产价格上升的时候,他们就拼命的消费。但是入不敷支的问题,是长期存在的。所以,当房地产泡沫爆破之后,现在大家都知道出现了所谓的次按风暴,然后就是雷曼事件,发展成为金融海啸。

因为美国的资本市场是消费过度而回落的,是挺令人担心的市场。凡是消费过度回落的股票市场是很难回升的。中国就刚刚相反,中国是储蓄太多,储蓄百分比有36%,就是每赚100元有36可以存下来,所以中国人越来越有钱,但是可以投资的项目部多。

举一个简单的例子,在美国可以投资外币、债券市场、衍生产品,内地在这方面的发展都不大。内地的资金最先涌入房地产市场,当房地产价格上升的时候加上股改成功,就引发了2006年A股牛市的狂潮,在2006年—2007年A股的平均PE从15倍炒到75倍,以全世界任何地方的水平来看,75倍的PE都是不正常的。

大家也经历了2007年10月开始A股的熊市,到目前为止已经跌到15倍,如果用新兴市场的PE看,A股市场也开始进入了合理水平。因为中国有没有过度消费,只是因为没有出路,资金全涌去股票市场,造成一个狂潮,长远来看,只要给他一点时间休息一下,我相信中国很容易有另一个牛市出现。

曹先生您对中国A股未来的走势有什么看法?

曹仁超: 相信经历了超级熊市之后,有机会在2008年10月、11月之间见底了,因为2009年世界经济不景气,所以A股市场暂时没资格出现牛市的。我自己相信,最大可能性在2009年是出现上下市。比如说沪深指数在1600点—2100点之间上下,等候世界经济好的时候,中国才会出现牛市。

情况就好象香港一样,1982年跌完之后,因为主权问题没有清晰,所以1983年、1984年是无法出现牛市,直到1984年7月份中英联合宣明,令到香港的前景清晰了,香港就出现牛市了。我相信。经过2009年的上上下下,到2010年经济方向清晰的时候,内地的牛市就会重临的。

MA 50,200分牛熊

分析走勢KISS
例如恒生指數喺今年10月27日10676點(道指由11月21日7449點)嘅反彈,目的係糾正過分偏低嘅現象。熊市二期升幅極限係重返200天線(港股250天線)之上,但50天線卻無法响熊市二期重返200天線(港股係250天線)之上。
如以移動平均線作為牛熊市分界(已經算係最冇爭議嘅方法),道指必須50天線(依家喺8702點)重返200天線(11062點)之上五個交易天才行。現水平道指只完成最小反彈(接觸50天線),距離確認牛市仍十分遙遠。
50 天線重返200天線(港股係250天線之上),叫黃金交叉點,乃牛市出現嘅訊號;反之,50天線跌穿200天線(港股係250天線),叫死亡交叉點,代表牛市已死。上述乃學習移動平均線理論者人盡皆知嘅分析(半桶水專家例外)。一旦拋離200天線(港股係250天線)30%或以上,將出現強大反彈或後抽,此乃熊市二期或牛市二期嘅特有現象。

例如恒生指數喺今年10月27日10676點(道指由11月21日7449點)嘅反彈,目的係糾正過分偏低嘅現象。熊市二期升幅極限係重返200天線(港股 250天線)之上,但50天線卻無法响熊市二期重返200天線(港股係250天線)之上。

 

在牛市中三组移动平均数排列是短期(例如十天线)最高,中期(例如五十线)在中间,最低是二百五十天移动平均线;在牛市中的调整期通常以跌破五十天线便完成,但亦有较少日子跌穿二百五十天线。在牛市中跌穿二百五十天线不但唔是沽货反而是入货良机;在熊市中刚相反,即最高是二百五十天线,依次五十天线,然后十天线;大部分反弹可略破五十天线,小部分反弹可高出二百五十天线(例如今年5月),不过此乃出货而非入货时刻

 

 

January 10, 2009

What Would Sir John Say?
http://spectator.org/archives/2009/01/08/what-would-sir-john-say

By Theodore Roosevelt Malloch on 1.8.09 @ 6:08AM
As "annus horribilis" 2008 recedes into the background it might be timely to look back a few years and ask: Who really saw all of this coming? Was such an economic and financial disaster foreseeable? What kind of financial sage would have predicted it three or four years ago, in the middle of the "go-go" years? Well, it turns out there was such a prescient, counterintuitive person, keen of mind and generous of soul. That person himself passed away at age 95 in mid-2008. He was, Sir John Templeton, stock picker of the century, innovator, renowned philanthropist, and always a step or more ahead of the pack…far ahead.
I had the benefit of knowing Sir John and visiting him often where he lived, at Lyford Cay, the Bahamas. I also served on his board of advisors of the John Templeton Foundation. So more recently, in the throes of deepening recession, massive foreclosures, government bailouts, a global stock sell-off, indeed, near financial collapse and all around general -- doom and gloom, I found myself repeatedly wondering out loud the same question: "What Would Sir John Say?" Then I remembered. I happened upon this urgent and wise "Memo" from him, written in June 2005. If only we had all taken it to heart and acted upon it then, how much better off we would be now. Read on:
MEMOSubject: Financial ChaosBy: John M. TempletonDate: June 15, 2005Increasingly often people ask my opinion on what is likely to happen financially. I am now thinking that the dangers are more numerous and far larger than ever before in my lifetime. Quite likely, as we near the end of the first six months of 2005, the peak of prosperity is behind us.In the past century, protection could be obtained by keeping your net worth in cash or government bonds. Now, the surplus capacities are so great, that most currencies or bonds are likely to continue losing their purchasing power.Mortgages and other forms of debts are over ten-fold greater now than before 1970. This can lead to manifold increases in bankruptcy auctions.Surplus capacity, which leads to intense competition, has already shown devastating effects on companies, which operate airlines, and is now beginning to show in companies in ocean shipping and other activities. Also, the present surpluses of cash and liquid assets have pushed yields on bonds and mortgages almost to zero when adjusted for higher costs of living. Clearly, major corrections are likely in the next few years.Most of the methods of universities and other schools, which require residence, have become hopelessly obsolete. Probably, over half of the universities in the world will disappear as quickly in the next 30 years.Obsolescence is likely to have a devastating effect in a wide variety of human activities, especially in those where advancement is hindered by restricted bureaucracies or by government regulations.Increasing freedom of completion is likely to cause many established institutions to disappear with the next 50 years, especially in nations where there are limits on free competition.Accelerating competition is likely to cause profit margins to continue to decrease and even become negative in various industries. Over ten-fold more persons, hopelessly indebted, leads to multiplying bankruptcies: not only for them, but also for many businesses that extend credit without collateral. When this occurs, voters are likely to insist on rescue-type subsidies, which transfer the debts of governments, such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Research and discoveries in efficiency are likely to continue to accelerate. Probably, in as quickly as 50 years, as much as 90 percent of education will be done by electronics.Now, with well over 100 independent nations on earth and rapid advances in communication, people with superior educational backgrounds are likely to progress more rapidly than others. These people with more advanced education are likely to be true innovators.Comparisons show that prosperity flows toward those nations having the greatest freedom of competition. Especially, electronics and computers are likely to become helpful in all human activities, including even helping persons who have not yet learned to read.Hopefully, many of you can help us to find published journals and websites and electronic search engines to help us benefit from accelerating research and discoveries.Not yet have I found any better method to prosper during the future financial chaos, which is likely to last many years, than to keep your net worth in shares in those corporations, which have proven to have the widest profit margins and the most rapidly increasing profits. Earning power is likely to continue to be valuable, especially if diversified among many nations.JMT/nl
He was, you have to admit, amazingly spot on. But what would Sir John say today in the midst of the greatest recession since the thirties, a global credit crunch of unparalleled proportions and unprecedented market turmoil?
I was with him less than two years ago at the famous Morgan Stanley equity conference at Lyford Cay and he was weak and frail from plain old age. He attended as much as he could because his mind was still sharp, even if his body was in decline. In the final session all the giants of financial services, the hedgies, asset managers, and top fund gurus told a bit about their plans for the future year or so. When Sir John spoke the room fell deafeningly silent, like in those old EF Hutton commercials, you could actually hear a pin drop. When he said he would "short" the financials, autos, airlines, housing, the QQQ, and Wal-Mart it was like a bomb had gone off and people (in this case the largest hedge funds and asset managers in the world) gasped for air. You see, Sir John was not known to normally -- go short. One person who runs the world's largest private equity fund asked sheepishly, "Is there nothing you would buy?" Sir John's quiet but sure answer I will always remember. He said, "No, because nothing is cheap yet, but they will be shortly."
Over his long lifetime Sir John while constantly urging for free markets, competition, spiritual knowledge and moral character would also be searching the world over and buying cheap stocks, and then holding them to sell when they had fully appreciated. He would see this moment, this next year, 2009, I think, as the buying opportunity of a lifetime, not only in the U.S. but also, as was his predilection, in markets around the world. Mark his words and check back in five, ten, or twenty years. And when in doubt always ask, "What Would Sir John Say?"