Stocks are simple. All you do is buy shares in a great business for less than the business is intrinsically worth, with management of the highest integrity and ability. Then you own those shares forever. I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

April 15, 2009

Buffet on BYD

Warren Buffett takes charge
Warren Buffett hasn't just seen the car of the future, he's sitting in the driver's seat. Why he's banking on an obscure Chinese electric car company and a CEO who - no joke - drinks his own battery fluid.
By Marc Gunther
Last Updated: April 13, 2009: 9:29 AM ET
(Fortune Magazine) -- Warren Buffett is famous for his rules of investing: When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is usually the reputation of the business that remains intact. You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will. And perhaps most famously, Never invest in a business you cannot understand.
So when Buffett's friend and longtime partner in Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB), Charlie Munger, suggested early last year that they invest in BYD, an obscure Chinese battery, mobile phone, and electric car company, one might have predicted Buffett would cite rule No. 3 above. He is, after all, a man who shunned the booming U.S. tech industry during the 1990s.
But Buffett, who is 78, was intrigued by Munger's description of the entrepreneur behind BYD, a man named Wang Chuan-Fu, whom he had met through a mutual friend. "This guy," Munger tells Fortune, "is a combination of Thomas Edison and Jack Welch - something like Edison in solving technical problems, and something like Welch in getting done what he needs to do. I have never seen anything like it."
Coming from Munger, that meant a lot. Munger, the 85-year-old vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, is a curmudgeon who frowns on most investment ideas. "When I call Charlie with an idea," Buffett tells me, "and he says, 'That is really a dumb idea,' that means we should put 100% of our net worth into it. If he says, 'That is the dumbest thing I've ever heard,' then you should put 50% of your net worth into it. Only if he says, 'I'm going to have you committed,' does it mean he really doesn't like the idea."
This time Buffett asked another trusted partner, David Sokol, chairman of a Berkshire-owned utility company called MidAmerican Energy, to travel to China and take a closer look at BYD.
Last fall Berkshire Hathaway bought 10% of BYD for $230 million. The deal, which is awaiting final approval from the Chinese government, didn't get much notice at the time. It was announced in late September, as the global financial markets teetered on the abyss. But Buffett and Munger and Sokol think it is a very big deal indeed. They think BYD has a shot at becoming the world's largest automaker, primarily by selling electric cars, as well as a leader in the fast-growing solar power industry.
Wang Chuan-Fu started BYD (the letters are the initials of the company's Chinese name) in 1995 in Shenzhen, China. A chemist and government researcher, Wang raised some $300,000 from relatives, rented about 2,000 square meters of space, and set out to manufacture rechargeable batteries to compete with imports from Sony and Sanyo. By about 2000, BYD had become one of the world's largest manufacturers of cellphone batteries. The company went on to design and manufacture mobile-phone handsets and parts for Motorola (MOT, Fortune 500), Nokia (NOK), Sony Ericsson, and Samsung.
Wang entered the automobile business in 2003 by buying a Chinese state-owned car company that was all but defunct. He knew very little about making cars but proved to be a quick study. In October a BYD sedan called the F3 became the bestselling sedan in China, topping well-known brands like the Volkswagen Jetta and Toyota (TM) Corolla.
BYD has also begun selling a plug-in electric car with a backup gasoline engine, a move putting it ahead of GM, Nissan, and Toyota. BYD's plug-in, called the F3DM (for "dual mode"), goes farther on a single charge - 62 miles - than other electric vehicles and sells for about $22,000, less than the plug-in Prius and much-hyped Chevy Volt are expected to cost when they hit the market in late 2010. Put simply, this little-known upstart has accelerated ahead of its much bigger rivals in the race to build an affordable electric car. Today BYD employs 130,000 people in 11 factories, eight in China and one each in India, Hungary, and Romania.
Its U.S. operations are small - about 20 people work in a sales and marketing outpost in Elk Grove Village, Ill., near Motorola, and another 20 or so work in San Francisco, not far from Apple. BYD makes about 80% of Motorola's RAZR handsets, as well as batteries for iPods and iPhones and low-cost computers, including the model distributed by Nicholas Negroponte's One Laptop per Child nonprofit based in Cambridge, Mass. Revenues, which have grown by about 45% annually during the past five years, reached $4 billion in 2008.
In acquiring a stake in BYD, Buffett broke a couple of his own rules. "I don't know a thing about cellphones or batteries," he admits. "And I don't know how cars work." But, he adds, "Charlie Munger and Dave Sokol are smart guys, and they do understand it. And there's no question that what's been accomplished since 1995 at BYD is extraordinary."
One more thing reassured him. Berkshire Hathaway first tried to buy 25% of BYD, but Wang turned down the offer. He wanted to be in business with Buffett - to enhance his brand and open doors in the U.S., he says - but he would not let go of more than 10% of BYD's stock. "This was a man who didn't want to sell his company," Buffett says. "That was a good sign."
We're lost in Shenzhen. I've flown 8,000 miles to meet Wang, and on the way to the interview, my driver pulls to the side of a dusty highway. He's yelling in Cantonese into his phone and frenetically sketching Chinese characters on the touchscreen of a GPS navigator. The PR woman beside me looks worried. "The GPS isn't working," she says. "Too many new roads."
I can't blame the driver or the GPS - which, it occurs to me, was probably made nearby, since Shenzhen is the manufacturing hub of the global electronics industry, the place your cellphone, digital camera, and laptop probably came from. Just across a river from Hong Kong, Shenzhen is the biggest and fastest-growing city in the world that most Americans cannot find on a map. It's also the Chinese city most like America, because people who live here have come from elsewhere in search of a better life.
When Deng Xiaoping designated Shenzhen as China's first "special economic zone" in 1980, inviting capitalism to take root, it was a fishing village; today, it's a sprawling megacity of 12 million to 14 million people, most of them migrant workers who toil in vast factories like those run by BYD and earn about 1,300 renminbi, or $190, per month.
When we find BYD's new headquarters - a silvery office building that would not look out of place in Silicon Valley - I'm given a tour of the company "museum," which celebrates products and milestones from the firm's brief history, and then escorted into a conference room where plates of apples, bananas, and cherry tomatoes are spread on a table. Wang takes a seat across from me - he is 43, a smallish man, with black hair and glasses - and begins, through an interpreter, to tell me his story.
He started BYD with a modest goal: to edge in on the Japanese-dominated battery business. "Importing batteries from Japan was very expensive," Wang says. "There were import duties, and delivery times were long." He studied Sony and Sanyo patents and took apart batteries to understand how they were made, a "process that involved much trial and error," he says. (Sony and Sanyo later sued BYD, unsuccessfully, for infringing on their patents.)
BYD's breakthrough came when Wang decided to substitute migrant workers for machines. In place of the robotic arms used on Japanese assembly lines, which cost $100,000 or more apiece, BYD actually cut costs by hiring hundreds, then thousands, of people.
"When I first visited the BYD factory, I was shocked," says Daniel Kim, a Merrill Lynch technology analyst based in Hong Kong, who has been to the fully automated production lines in Japan and Korea. "It's a completely different business model." To control quality, BYD broke every job down into basic tasks and applied strict testing protocols. By 2002, BYD had become one of the top four manufacturers worldwide - and the largest Chinese manufacturer - in each of the three rechargeable battery technologies (Li-Ion, NiCad, and NiMH), according to a Harvard Business School case study of the company. And Wang stresses that BYD, unlike Sony and Sanyo, has never faced a recall of its batteries.
Deploying the armies of laborers at BYD is an officer corps of managers and engineers who invent and design the products. Today the company employs about 10,000 engineers who have graduated from the company's training programs - some 40% of those who enter either drop out or are dismissed - and another 7,000 new college graduates are being trained. Wang says the engineers come from China's best schools. "They are the top of the top," he says. "They are very hard-working, and they can compete with anyone." BYD can afford to hire lots of them because their salaries are only about $600 to $700 a month; they also get subsidized housing in company-owned apartment complexes and low-cost meals in BYD canteens. "They're basically breathing, eating, thinking, and working at the company 24/7," says a U.S. executive who has studied BYD.
Wang typically works until 11 p.m. or midnight, five or six days a week. "In China, people of my generation put work first and life second," says the CEO, whose wife takes responsibility for raising their two children.
This "human resource advantage" is "the most important part" of BYD's strategy, Wang says. His engineers investigate a wide array of technologies, from automobile air-conditioning systems that can run on batteries to the design of solar-powered streetlights. Unlike most automakers, BYD manufactures nearly all its cars by itself - not just the engines and body but air conditioning, lamps, seatbelts, airbags, and electronics. "It is difficult for others to compete," Wang says. "If we put our staff in Japan or the U.S., we could not afford to do anything like this."
Wang himself grew up in extreme poverty. His parents, both farmers, died before he entered high school, and he was raised by an older brother and sister. The train ride from the village where he grew up to Central South Industrial University of Technology, where he earned his chemistry degree, took him by Yellow Mountain, a popular destination for hikers and tourists, but he has never visited there. "I didn't go then because we had no money," he says. "I don't go now because we have no time."
As for accumulating wealth? "I'm not interested in it," he claims. He certainly doesn't live a very lavish lifestyle. He was paid about $265,000 in 2008, and he lives in a BYD-owned apartment complex with other engineers. His only indulgences are a Mercedes and a Lexus, and they have a practical purpose: He takes their engines apart to see how they work. On a trip to the U.S., he once tried to disassemble the seat of a Toyota owned by Fred Ni, an executive who was driving him around. Shortly after BYD went public, Wang did something extraordinary: He took approximately 15% of his holdings in BYD and distributed the shares to about 20 other executives and engineers at the company. He still owns roughly 28% of the shares, worth about $1 billion.
The company itself is frugal. Until recently, executives always flew coach. One told me he was appalled when he learned that Ford, which lost billions last year, had staged a gala at the Hotel George V during the Paris auto show. By contrast, the last time BYD executives traveled to the Detroit auto show they rented a suburban house to save the cost of hotel rooms.
This attention to costs is one reason that BYD has made money consistently even as it has expanded into new businesses. Each of BYD's business units - batteries, mobile-phone components, and autos - was profitable in 2008, albeit on a small scale. Overall, net profits were around $187 million. BYD, which is traded on the Hong Kong exchange, has a market value of about $3.8 billion. That's less than Ford (F, Fortune 500) ($7 billion at the beginning of April), but more than General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) ($1.3 billion).
Near the end of our conversation, I ask Wang about the company name. It's been reported that BYD stands for "Build your dreams," but he says he added that as the company motto only later. Others say that as Motorola, Apple, and Berkshire Hathaway have made their way to Shenzhen, the name has taken on yet another meaning: Bring your dollars.
When David Sokol toured BYD's operations last summer, Wang took him to a battery factory and explained that BYD wants to make its batteries 100% recyclable. To that end, the company has developed a nontoxic electrolyte fluid. To underscore the point, Wang poured battery fluid into a glass and drank it. "Doesn't taste good," he said, making a face and offering a sip to Sokol.
Sokol declined politely. But he got the message. "His focus there was that if we're going to help solve environmental problems, we can't create new environmental problems with our technology," Sokol says.
Sokol, author of a slim volume on management principles called Pleased but Not Satisfied, sized up Wang during that visit and decided he was an unusually purposeful executive. Sokol says, "Many good entrepreneurs can go from zero to a couple of million in revenues and a couple of hundred people. He's got over 100,000 people. Few can do that." When he got back to the U.S., Sokol told Buffett, "This guy's amazing. You want to meet him."
Even before visiting BYD, Sokol believed in electric cars. His people at MidAmerican have studied clean technologies like batteries and wind power for years because of the threat of climate change. One way or another, Sokol says, energy companies will need to produce more energy while emitting less carbon dioxide.
Electric cars will be one answer. They generate fewer greenhouse gas emissions than cars that burn gasoline, and they have lower fuel costs, even when oil is cheap. That's because electric engines are more efficient than internal-combustion engines, and because generating energy on a large scale (in coal or nuclear plants) is less wasteful than doing it on a small scale (by burning gasoline in an internal-combustion engine).
The numbers look something like this: Assume you drive 12,000 miles a year, gas costs $2 a gallon, and electricity is priced at 12¢ per kilowatt, about what most Americans pay. A gasoline-powered car that gets 20 miles to the gallon - say, a Chevy Impala or a BMW X3 - will have annual fuel costs of $1,200 and generate about 6.6 tons of carbon dioxide. Equip those cars with electric motors, and fuel costs drop to $400 a year and emissions are reduced to about 1.5 tons.
The big problem is that they are expensive to make, and the single largest cost is the battery. Manufacturing a safe, reliable, long-lasting, and fast-charging battery for a car is a complex and costly undertaking. BYD claims to have achieved a breakthrough with its lithium ion ferrous phosphate technology, but no one can be sure whether it will work as promised.
Skeptics say that BYD's battery cannot be both more powerful and cheaper than those made by competitors, and the U.S. Department of Energy has purchased an F3DM to take the battery apart. Chitra Gopal, an analyst with Nomura Securities in Singapore who follows the company closely, says BYD is betting on "entirely new technology, and the ability to produce it at scale and at a low cost remains unproven." William Moore, publisher and editor-in-chief of EV World, an electric car website, says, "They need to persuade people that they are selling a reliable, durable, quality automobile."
Even BYD's admirers say the fit and finish of the company's cars leave much to be desired. "Their cars are way behind Toyota, for sure," Sokol admits. BYD currently exports gasoline-powered cars to Africa, South America, and the Middle East, but they compete on price, not quality.
BYD's first plug-in hybrid, called a dual-mode car, is designed to run primarily on electricity, with an internal- combustion engine for backup. Two all-electric cars - the E3 and the E6 - will follow later this year. Both will be sold first in China, primarily to fleet users: the government, post office, utilities, and taxi companies, all of which will build central fast-charging facilities. Europe, with its high gas prices, is the most promising export market for BYD's electric cars. Wang signed an agreement last year with Autobinck, a Dutch dealer group, to distribute its cars in the Netherlands and five Eastern European countries.
The company hasn't yet decided whether it will enter the U.S. market, where the economics of electric cars are not as compelling. Sokol, who now sits on BYD's board, says BYD could instead become a battery supplier to global automakers. Some Americans, though, are eager to do business with BYD. The day after Fortune's visit to BYD, Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski arrived to test-drive an electric car and urge the company to import through the port of Portland. Meanwhile, BYD researchers are on to their next big idea, a product they call a Home Clean Power Solution. It's essentially a set of rooftop solar photovoltaic panels with batteries built in to store power for use when the sun's not out, all to be designed and manufactured by BYD. "Solar is an endless source of energy," Wang says. "With better technology, we can reduce the costs."
Wang is also focused on building a stronger executive team to drive the company forward. "The good news is, he's 42 years old," Sokol says. "The bad news is that he's clearly the brains behind the organization, and the drive. He has to develop a team faster, but I think he knows that." Last winter it was Sokol's turn to lead Wang on a tour of his home country. They started in Detroit, where BYD's cars generated buzz at the North American Auto Show, and wound up on the West Coast, where Wang met for the first time with Charlie Munger. In between, they stopped in Omaha.
"How did BYD get so far ahead?" Warren Buffett asked Wang, speaking through a translator. "Our company is built on technological know-how," Wang answered. Wary as always of a technology play, Buffett asked how BYD would sustain its lead. "We'll never, never rest," Wang replied.
Buffett may not understand batteries or cars, or Mandarin for that matter. Drive, however, is something that needs no translation.

April 10, 2009

这应该是个反转,而不是反弹 - 孙明春


April 03, 2009

王石 评房价

2008年01月30日  住在杭州网

王石:房价非理性 下跌是必然    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------    2008-1-28 9:18:21 东方早报        万科集团董事长王石昨日(27日)在接受采访时表示,房价调整甚至下跌是因为房价增长已经高出消费者收入太多,理性回归是必然趋势。他还建议,青年人在40岁之前没有必要急着买房。     2007年,楼市惯有的“金九银十”没有出现,在王石看来,这是因为房价的上涨水平已经远远高于收入增长的水平,因此宏观调控加重后,疯狂上涨的房价得到了抑制。     王石认为,此轮宏观调控与以往不同,不仅局限于房地产,而且是对整个流动资金过剩、通货膨胀压力加大的经济大环境的调整,是货币政策从适度从紧到从紧的转变。     比照2004、2005年宏观调控之后房价继续上涨的情况,王石认为,当时房价继续上涨的根本原因在于市场的价格与消费者收入的增长是一种正向的关系,并非调控失效。然而,在本轮调控中,万科在广州、深圳等地的楼盘率先降价,市场反应不错,说明房价调整并非完全因为宏观调控,“房价已经跟收入增长脱钩太远,有些甚至出现地价比房价还高,"面粉比面包还贵"的非理性现象。因此,即便没有宏观调控,价高量缩,房价也会下降,最后趋于理性。”     在房价理性回归过程中,有的地方房价会下降,有的微升,有的不升不降,但是总的趋势来讲,房价还是会往上升的。王石说,现在的关键是房价的上涨速度,家庭收入增长的速度快过房价上涨的速度,这才是合理的、理性的、可持续的。     王石进一步解释道,拐点有三个意思:一是从大涨到大跌,二是从牛市到熊市,三是价格的理性回归,而万科所指的拐点是指价格的理性回归。他认为,珠三角的房价下调已经形成拐点。     王石还建议,40岁之前可以先租房。“作为我的观点来讲,(个人)属于没有最后(发展)定型,最后还有抱负有理想,在40岁之前应该还是租房为好。”他说。     对年轻人结婚即要买房的普遍情况,王石建议结婚也可以先租房:“如果从我的角度来说,我是地产开发商,肯定建议你买房,而且是买万科的房子,我们从大学生公寓到最后退休的房子都有。但是比照国外的城市统计来讲,20多岁就买房的非常少,尤其是大城市,对即将要结婚成家的年轻人来说,也是先租房为好。”
王石:房价疯涨让人心惊肉跳 房市将理性回归2007-12-26 03:30:19 来源: 第一财经日报(上海)  进入王石贴吧 共 107 条 黑马推荐  对于“拐点”,王石认为是出现了“转折”,这个转折不是像股票市场这样大升大跌,是从一种市转到另外一种市,在带有这种盲目地亢奋的预期的房地产增值情况下,之前盲目地带有推进性的追风,变为一种理性的回归,类似的回归,可以指广州、深圳,也可以用于全国。
最近关于楼市拐点的问题成为各界最关注的焦点,经济半小时栏目前不久曾报道过深圳和广州房价下跌的情况,引发了楼市拐点的讨论,其中万科董事局主席王石在接受媒体采访时表示,深圳楼市确实出现拐点,万科同时下调了自己在深圳和广州的楼盘售价,降价幅度最高达到15%,那么深圳和广州所出现的这种拐点是暂时的还是代表着一种趋势?这种降价的趋势有可能在全国的其他城市比如北京上海出现吗?我们今天的节目专门采访了万科集团董事会主席王石。    “中产阶级买不起房,这个房市有问题”    赵赫:“王总,我知道在前不久一个会议上,你曾经表达了你的观点,说现在中国楼市已经出现拐点,你具体是指什么?”    王石:“当时是在一次公益活动在回答记者提问的时候,记者问的问题很长,大意思是广州的房价下降,深圳房价下降,作为万科的董事会主席,你是不是认为现在楼市出现拐点?我指的拐点第一个是出现了一个转折,这个转折不是像股票市场这样大升大跌,是从一种市转到另外一种市,可能是带有这种盲目的亢奋的预期的房地产增值情况下,一种盲目的带有推进性的追风,已经是一种理性的回归,显然这是指理性的回归,是指广州、深圳,也是一种理性回归,这种理性回归用于全国也可以这样说,因为最近中央连续的加息,连续对于房地产的调控政策,再加上提高银行的准备金,可以预期准备金还会继续调,显然房市的需求、正常消费都有很大的影响,实际上从万科掌握的资料来讲,就深圳、广州、东莞、上海、杭州、北京、天津这么几个城市来比较,今年10月份和去年10月份同期差别是非常大的,比如说深圳和去年同期10月份相比,他楼市萎缩的82%,萎缩的是非常厉害的,这个有两个因素,一个是供应量有限,第二个需求量也受到很大的抑制,广州萎缩了44%,在广州、深圳中间的东莞却上升了27%,北京和去年相比是有所下降,按照我们掌握的资料是下降9.2%,但是旁边的天津是在上升,上海是下降15%,但是杭州上涨20%几,我们从这几个城市来看,他们在一起但是表现也不一样,所以我觉得像中国房地产市场这么大,已经是不同城市东南西北中比较大,更不要说西部和东部城市之间的差别就更大了,不能一概而论,确实现在从一种盲目的带有亢奋的,追求担心不买价格会更贵这样的趋势趋于理性。”    赵赫:“确实当初大家都纷纷职责房价过高的时候,房价还在不管不顾的上涨,现在确实出现了一些新的情况,像你说的珠三角地区已经出现房价下跌的情况,还有一些城市出现了有价无市的状况,对于市场如果出现持续的调整,对开发商意味着什么?”    王石:“房价这样的上涨,已经上涨到中产阶层,就是年收入在6万人民币到20万人民币这样一个阶层,他们已经感觉到买房子非常吃力的时候,这个房市快要出问题了,所以在现在疯涨的情况下,再不抑制住是一定会出问题的,而且感觉到和东南亚的泡沫经济、和日本泡沫经济某个阶段是蛮相似的,所以说这种对他抑制消费,我觉得尽管是行政手段社会上有很多不同反映,我个人认为是非常有必要的。”    赵赫:“前不久万科在深圳和广州有新盘低开的现象,这是对市场的回应吗?”    王石:“这个是从两个方面的回应,第一个我们应该有一个理性的思维,当中产阶层感觉到房子买不起的时候,你就要警惕了,因为这个市场可能要出问题,你要采取一些对策,这是要发展商本身自己要来反映的;第二个是现在宏观大政策形式一定要看清楚,实际上我们消费的类型是有一种二八现象,就是更多财富聚集在20%人手上,他们可能买第二套房、第三套房、第四套房,他们是投资行为,他们本身的住房已经解决了,宏观调控本身是抑制二次购房的时候,按揭准备金的提高、利率的提高会抑制他们购房的,再一个银行也受国家政策影响要开始压缩信贷规模,这个要看到,再一个要有自身风险的思考和市场的判断,就是市场第二次购房、第三次购房作为投资性的,一定是受到很大的抑制,这个时候如果没有对市场的判断,自身会有问题的,本身应该说万科价格的调整,一个是自己的反思,再一个是对宏观调控政策最直接的回应。”    “我觉得这次调整不同以往”    赵赫:“你刚才说的这些是对开发商的良好建议,还是对手中已经握有房子的人士的良言?”    王石:“我觉得对同行更准确一些,因为同行现在还有很多不同看法,很多人认为中国大的层面需求还是非常硬性的,所谓这种调整马上会反弹,因为确实这两年国家政策有这样的情况,调整一次价格上升一次,我觉得这次是不同的,要清醒认识,这个是两方面原因,一个方面是消费者已经承受不住了,这个要清醒的看到,第二个是国家的调整不仅仅是对房地产,整个现在通货膨胀的压力,整个我们的投资热钱多,这一定要货币回笼,要把通货膨胀压下来,当然你房地产首当其冲,如果不看到这样局面的话会麻烦的,再一个应该看到正因为这个市场有这个需求,就是价格调整是非常必要的,而且不要仅仅看到你现在土地价格成本多少,这一年多土地价格累累出现标王,甚至是面粉会贵过面包,这时候让他降价非常痛苦了,如果还是以你原来土地成本价来计算,市场对你是毫不留情的,应该进行调整,再一个应该看到,正因为带有一种盲目的投机性的购房抑制住之后,即使现在应该看到土地供应有限,土地价格的疯涨也就抑制下来了,实际上10月份以来一线城市出现了流标,不是说面粉贵过面包你买不到,而是最后没有人买了,所以土地即使是稀有的也会调整,万科是基于这样的判断进行价格调整。”    “目前性价比不高,三四年后再买房吧”    赵赫:“对于现在已经具备了一些能力,准备要买房子还是处在一种持币观望阶段的时候,这样的人士你有什么具体的建议。”    王石:“我的建议是这样,就我个人来讲,很多人都问我说现在该不该买房子?我说你三四年之后再买吧,三年到四年,为什么,什么意思呢,我不是从价格角度来看,我而是从性能价格比上来讲,因为我认为,性能价格比上来讲,中国和发达工业国家相比,我们这个房子是相当相当不值的,因为你要买房子,长期自己拥有,我建议来讲,因为我相信在三四年之后,因为这几年中国住宅质量一直在改善,你如果和10年前,和20年前相比,有很大的提高,但是和工业发达国家相比,质量上还有很大的缺口,我觉得三四年之后会有比较大的改善,在那个时候去买,不要更多的从价格去买,因为如果是价格,你三四年之后你是一个中产阶层,你存这么多年钱还买不起房子的话,我觉得市场是有问题的,市场一定会被惩罚的,不是惩罚消费者,是惩罚房地产发展商,惩罚社会,当然惩罚当中,高价买了房子的也跟着会贬值。”    赵赫:“应该说这几年社会各界对房地产行业指责还是比较多的。”    王石:“发展商社会形象不好,甚至很多负面的,这也是一种事实,我想首先第一个是它的产品,刚才讲为什么我建议现在不要买房子,就是等两三年之后,很多海归回来,来了说要买房子,我担心价格高,我都给的建议你等个三四年也不晚,它的质量还是有点问题,比如说和家电、汽车制造业相比,和我们的国产品牌和他们质量相比,确实房地产质量还有待大的提高,那你的质量直接决定了你的形象,所以在相当一段时间,在消协那里,投诉量最大的第一就是对房子,差不多是百分之三十几,所以房地产商必须要致力提高自己的质量,不仅仅是建造质量,还有售后服务质量;第二个就是房价,你就是质量改善了,你房价这么高,当然直接利益得主就是你房地产商,把价格抬高了,你得赚大钱,所以这个形象就很不好,一个买不起房,再一个就是,你赚大钱的前提是我买不起房子,当然这个就更恶劣了。”    “我在此声明:2008年之后万科绝不拿地王”    赵赫:“还有说到房价过高,也有很多的开发商会谈到因为土地稀缺,地价在涨,像年内我们土地价格也是屡创新高,有些地方甚至出现了面粉要贵过面包,也就是说,我们的土地要贵过房子,这样的一个现象,这个原因是什么?”    王石:“这个原因简单来说,当然一个是市场大家都看好,对未来的预期,当然对预期极端的看好,所以只能用亢奋这种词来进行形容,但是显然面粉贵过面包的局面不可能持续下去,因为到头来讲,面包吃不起的时候,因为你面粉还要做面包,你不可能亏损卖,当然消费者买不起面包的时候,你卖面包不能说我面粉贵的理由,我一定要卖高价,那你价格还要下来的,所以这样对投资者来讲风险是非常非常大的,之所以日本泡沫经济,我想就是透支未来透支的太厉害,当市场撑不住的时候它就下来了,所以在2007年出现一些地王,出现面粉贵过面包的时候,显然带行政色彩的宏观调控压缩,抑制,带有投机性的投资,显然是非常有必要的,所以我说深圳、广州的价格回落,是从疯狂的上涨到理性的回归,是用这样的字眼来判断现在是什么样的形式,显然这种上涨是不可能持续下去的,如果不一致,可能大家还津津乐道地说,你看我地价拿的贵,你到明年看,房价上涨的更贵,因为他拿的贵,本身他的预期就是房价会更贵,到现在已经涨到中产阶层感觉购买压力很大的时候,显然面粉贵过面包的现象不可能持续,当然土地供应量少,价格上涨这是一个原因,但是构不成这样一个上涨的充分理由,确实需求旺盛,土地供应不足这是现在市场如何来改变现在市场健康发展要面对的问题,但是绝对不构成我土地要贵过房价的理由,个别现象只能是个案,作为普通来讲,这一定会出现问题的,对这个问题,我有一个认识过程,确实在2007年,我们在10个城市地王的地上有两块是万科拿的,一块是在东莞,一块在福州,所以现在造成社会上形象,就是你们这些上市公司寡头垄断、圈钱、高价拿地,反过来再维持高价,为什么有这样的印象,我们要检讨的,所以我借着在中央电视台《经济半小时》这样的栏目上来声明:2008年之后,万科绝不拿地王,也就是说,万科这样的规模来讲,也完全没有必要计较一城一池的得失,完全没有必要靠拿地王的地来竞争,简单来讲,为什么造成这样的印象,我们是有责任的,我们进行检讨,我做个检讨,我们这样拿地来讲,我们显得是我们也多少有点亢奋,对于拿的地价来讲,但确实不是我们的本意,我们要这样来拿高地价,维持高房价,再来我们圈钱,再来高地价维持高房价,这绝对不是我们的意思,但是造成这种印象,我们应该检讨,而且非常明确,我们借此声明,也非常愿意全国的观众消费者来监督万科的行为。”    赵赫:“像香港、日本都曾经出现过楼市泡沫破灭以后,危及到金融领域,进而危及到整个国民经济,在中国我们会不会出现这样的情况?”    王石:“如果不进行抑制,还是疯狂上涨的话,你比如说,从去年到现在,这样的价格上涨,上涨到我感觉是心惊肉跳,实际上万科是上市公司,它每个季度都发表季报的,你从万科今年以来的第一季度、第二季度、第三季度季报上可以看到,季报上都有这样的字眼,就是市场充满激情和亢奋,已经用亢奋这样的字眼了,万科要保持冷静,我们不能追风,我们一定要务实的,坚定不移的走一条比较稳当的开发路线,什么意思,什么叫亢奋,就是已经控制不了自己的往上涨这种趋势继续下去,一定会有问题的。”    赵赫:“非常感谢你今天百忙之中来到我们的演播室和我们一起就当前中国楼市的一些变化作出的一些有意的探讨。”