THE RATIONAL INVESTOR

Stocks are simple. All you do is buy shares in a great business for less than the business is intrinsically worth, with management of the highest integrity and ability. Then you own those shares forever. I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

October 17, 2008

以巴菲特买入价考虑 买3968 (BPS=7.5HKD)

3968 - 11到12元之间, 上半年每股book value = 5.27 HKD, 第三季BPS＝6.9HKD, 估计全年可达6.6元RMB＝7.5HKD, 2倍PB买入大概在12元，由于第三季增加80%, 前三季EPS大概是1.4HKD, 由此估计全年的EPS大概是1.86HKD, 12元买入PE大概是6.45倍. 等于是巴菲特5-6倍PE买入wells forgo

0012 - net book value = 47元，而且Third avenue 估计每年增长10%(need to figure out why? ), 所以大概5-7年后会到达80-90元，如果以20-22元现在买入，5-7年的可见回报率是4倍．

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