Stocks are simple. All you do is buy shares in a great business for less than the business is intrinsically worth, with management of the highest integrity and ability. Then you own those shares forever. I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

September 06, 2008

Things will be better five years from now - Year 2013

很多經濟學家擔心,中國隨著全球經濟增長減慢,發展速度也會放緩。但巴菲特絲毫沒有這樣的擔憂,認為中國的經濟會發展得不錯。

  巴菲特認為未來10年、20年內,中國和印度將在現在的基礎上取得長足的發展。“所以,我真的不是非常擔心它們未來的發展是否將會遇到突然的干擾或其他,我也無法預測。如果我能預測,我仍然希望能以適當的價格,在適當的時候收購一些好的企業。”

  “誰知道中國經濟是否會過熱、通脹嚴重或其他什麼問題?”巴菲特強調他不擔心不重要和不可知的事情。中國和美國一樣,未來半年或一年發生什麼真的並不重要,關鍵是未來10年會發生什麼。

  “我們要讓事情變好,而事實是,中國會做得更好。因為他們起步較低,但是在過去的20年學到了大量的商業智慧,以及如何釋放人的潛能。後面這一點美國較早前就學會了,但中國正在非常非常快速地掌握。”他說。

  

6:03 AM:  Buffett says "things have rippled out" in the U.S. economy, as one might expect.

Buffett says due to implicit government backing, the two GSEs could borrow without the usual checks and balances.  Then needed to keep earnings growing to keep stock market happy and turned to accounting to do it.  Agrees they are "too big to fail."  Buffett says they would have been gone a long time ago if the government hadn't been behind them.  He thinks Freddie and Fannie will survive but shareholders could "lose a lot of money."

6:05 AM:  Still thinks the economic problems will be deeper than longer than expected.  He expects things will be better five years from now, but not five months from now.  "Troubles feed on themselves."

6:05 AM:  Still thinks the economic problems will be deeper than longer than expected.  He expects things will be better five years from now, but not five months from now.  "Troubles feed on themselves."

6:22 AM:  Buffett reveals that Berkshire made a half-billion dollar bid on a Chinese stock that wasn't accepted. He wouldn't say what stock or what industry.  He did say that under the right circumstances he could have a lot of money in China, but noted that there are government restrictions on foreign ownership that must be overcome.

6:46 AM:  Buffett says "investing in yourself" is always the best thing.

6:56 AM:  Buffett says he does not have a "buy order" right now for any oil sand companies.

7:03 AM:  Becky asks again about the economy and he repeats his view that the negative ripples will continue to spread for awhile.  He sees no "early end" to the problems although they will end eventually.

8:44 AM:  Buffett predicts housing market recovery will take some time, probably years.  "A lot of blame to go around."  The market won't really come back until you get to a normal inventory of unsold homes.

8:51 AM:  Buffett says he would be surprised he Berkshire doesn't "do something" in China in the next few years.  Any investment there would probably be an extension of his existing businesses.  He says the U.S. will do well, but the Chinese will do better because they're starting from a lower base and have really learned how to unleash the potential of their people.

8:53 AM:  Buffett says he worries about "what's important and what's knowable."

http://www.trader1688.com/bb/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=18602&hilit=



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