Buffettology Summary

95%的投资人是 short term motivated, goods new phenonmenon/bad news phenomenon. 历史上最终反映公司长期股权投资价值的是该公司的长期经济价值。他喜欢在短期负面消息蒙蔽了华尔街投资人的眼睛时，买入优良投资公司。

寻找consumer monopolies 而非commodity 企业:

消费垄断性企业的强力品牌，就好像独占事业一般，如果你想购买此特定的产品或者服务，只能找这家公司－付费通行的桥梁。不会遭遇景气循环起伏。有能力从任何挫折中复原。

品牌忠诚度：强烈品牌认同而非价格战（比如航空公司人家买低价机票）。

高利润率 （可口可乐16%, 微软38%)

高存货周转率

持续的高ROE - 有能力以目前事业赚钱，也能运用保留盈余为股东赚取丰厚获利。（可口可乐32%, 微软26.8%，过去40年美国平均12%, MASTER 48%, Disney, Gannett 25%, 麦当劳18%, UST蓣草 30%）

如公司把全部净值拿来支付股利，不留一分钱股东权益，公司还要价值吗？如果是，很可能是消费垄断型。（如american express 因偶然不幸事件严重损及财务结构，净值几乎为0，但是他们仍然有消费垄断权 ＋ 如果聘请全球最佳50位经理人再投入数十亿美元是否可以击垮该公司？（买进可乐和Gillette时就是应用这个判断原理) ，你不能劝人改用其他品牌的操作系统，可乐，麦当劳汉堡包，万宝路香烟

消费垄断权的企业无须依赖厂房，土地，设备等固定成本投资，相反commodity则依赖。 箭牌，Hershey过去50年使用同样的的生产设备。通用汽车则每年花几十亿翻新设备以推出新款车。消费垄断权企业依赖无形资产。

消费垄断权现金流量大，往往负债接近0。(检查公司财务能力最佳指标乃是盈利偿还负债的能力，即公司赚的钱几年能还清负债 Gannett Co 公司只需要一年，推荐小于3年)

盈利纪录是否持续稳定而且显示强劲上升趋势？ (1.07 1.16 1.28 1.42 1.64 1.60 1.90 2.39 2.43 2.69)

公司是否把极高的保留盈余花在维持目前的营运上？

公司是否自由地运用保留盈余，以投资新事业或者回顾股票？（大多数公司以保留盈余维持公司运营，而非扩张事业）。即一，赚钱。二，能保住赚的钱。三，而且不把所有保留盈余花在维持营运上。（负面例子如美国AT&T虽然获利丰厚但是必须投入更高的资本支出在R&D与infrastructure上面）。巴菲特总是寻找不太需要更换厂房设备不需要持续投入R&D，产品永不过时，市场没有竞争者。人们不想看到产品改变，生产的产品是可预期的产品，因此利润是可预期的。如口香糖，汽水，啤酒，糖果，唯一的地方性报纸等。

公司是否能在通货膨胀时期自由提高售价而不影响需求？

当保留盈余增加时，是否使公司的市值上升？

生产的产品很快就会快速耗损或者用完、具知名品牌、商店必须供应或者使用此产品方能生存

提供重复性传播服务的公司，制造商必须使用传播服务以说服大众购买产品 广告，电视，报纸 ABC

提供个人与企业持续需要之重复性消费服务的企业 （不太需要资本开支，不需要雇用高等教育人员）

取得一区域独占低位，销售珠宝家具等产品零售者 （较低折扣进货，高库存，售价低）

可乐33.6%ROE 分为两部分，19.4% 为保留，14.2%股利。首先估计未来十年的股东权益价值，然后乘以未来ROE，得出未来十年的盈利。1988年每股5.22买入可口可乐P/E＝14.5，报酬率是0.36/5.22=6.89%. 2000年股价如果15-25倍PE其股价大概是45-75元。巴菲特预计98-2000年投资报酬率是19.7%(5.22-45元 annual 19.7%)-24.9%(5.22-75元 annual 19.7%).

年度	每股股东权益	每股盈余	股利	保留盈余
1988	1.07	0.36	0.15	0.21
1989	1.28	0.43	0.18	0.25
1990	1.53	0.51	0.21	0.30
...
...
2000	8.98	3.02	1.27	1.75

买入时机：整体股市严重下挫时（washington post, cocacola) 或者公司负面消息 使当时获利受挫公司面临的是单一的可以解决的问题。（运通，GEIGO）。

COMMODITY企业：

竞争激烈，售价最低的赢得生意，消费者的决策的重要因素是价格。赢家通常是成本最低者。成本低，利润高，为维持成本低的优势，必须不断改善流程，投入更多资本，侵蚀原本可以发展新产品或者并购其他企业的获利。经济繁荣期，需求大于供应，可以赚钱，但是繁荣结束后，资产负债表开始失血。如通用汽车90-93年亏200亿。

获利无法提高，所以欠缺资金发展事业

即使获利，赚来的钱通常投入厂房设备的升级，以维持竞争力，原地踏步，等于给竞争者机会。

低利润率

低存货周转率

低ROE

缺乏品牌忠诚度，市面上有相同产品的厂商

获利反复无常（如十年中三四年亏钱）尔非持续盈利

获利靠管理层有效率运用有形资产（如航空公司靠飞机，汽车靠厂房设备等）

<<buffetology>>

in 1979 General Foods, $37, buffet saw strong earnings (in the piror year, 1978, $4.65 per share) and that earning had been growing at an average annaul rate of 8.7%. Buffet project 1978 EPS could be 5.05. initial rate of return = 5.05/37 = 13.6%. (ie PE=7.3) and the that rate of return is going to increase each year by 8.7%. Over a period of time the stock market would acknowledge this increase in value and adjust the stock's price upward. in 1978 to 1984, its earning per share rose at an average annual rate of appx. 7%, from 4.65 to 6.96. the price upward to $54 in 1984. 1985, Philip Morris saw the value of General Foods's many brand-name products, which created a strong and expanding earning base, and bought all of warren's stock for $120 a share in a tender offer for the whole company. This gives Warren a pretax annual compounding rate of return approximately 21%.

RJR Nabisco in 1988 was selling for $45 a share, earning was 5.92 and was carrying very little debt. it had a long history of spectacular earning growth, which was made possible by the profits generated by the tobacco business. However, the public had labeled the company a pariah because of the lawsuites against it by people who claimed they had cancer, caused by smoking. The stock market saw this and responded by keeping the price of the stock low. Later the company offered $75 per share to buy back.

Graham: In general, the market undervalues a litigated claim as an asset and overvalues it as a liability.

Nine questions to determine if a business is truly an excellent one

No 1. Does the business have an identifiable consumer monopoly?

No 2. Are the earning of the company strong and showing an upward trend?

No 3. Is the company conservatively financed?

little or no long term debt. Coca-cola, Gillette, Wrigley, UST, international Flavor & Fragrances. Two consumer monopolies go to the altar, it will more than likely be a fantastic marriage.

No 4. Does the business consistently earn a high rate of return on shareholder's equity?

General Foods 16%, Service Master's 40%, UST 30%. consistently high ROE is a good indication that the company's management not only can make money from the existing business but also can profitably employ retained earning to make more money for the shareholders.

No 5. Does the business get to retain its earnings?

able to profitably employ retianed earnings at rates of return considerably above the average. a few business that didn't need to spend their retained earnings upgrading plant and equipment or on new-product development, but could spend their earnings either on acquiring new businesses or expanding the operations of their already profitable core enterprises.

No 6. How much does the business have to spend on maintaining current operations?

No 7. Is the company free to reinvest retained earnings in new business opportunities, expansion of operations, or share repurchases? How good a job does the management do at this?

No 8. Is the company free to adjust prices to inflation?

No 9. Will the value added by retained earnings increase the market value of the company?

"Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher 5, 10, and 20 years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards -- so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren't willing to own a stock for 10 years, don't even think about owning it for 10 minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio's market value."

"The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage. The products or services that have wide, sustainable moats around them are the ones that deliver rewards to investors."

I'm Looking for business generally do not change and have durable competitive advantage and it have reasons why it can keep ROC, ROE.