BUFFET说美国可能进入衰退,会计财务报表,自己看得明白,耐心等待，一生也就四五只

Warren, we asked you about this earlier today. There are some people who now think we are heading for a recession. Do you think that?

Buffett: Well, I think it could happen, sure. I think if unemployment picks up significantly there will be some dominoes that topple from that. I don't know if unemployment will pick up significantly. I mean, frankly, I've been a little surprised that it's stayed at 4.7 percent. If we can keep people employed, we will not have the dominoes topple. If unemployment picked up a lot, I think we could be in for a recession.

Becky: Well, what about the economy from your perspective? How does it stand right now?
Buffett: It's sort of amazing. We have this enormous weakness in housing. That effects an awful lot of people. There's a wealth effect to it, everything. So far, it hasn't spilled over into employment. Now we have a set of dominoes in line that there could be some real effect from if unemployment rose. But so far, you know, it's been at 4.7, well, it won't make any difference if it goes to 4.8 or 4.9, but if unemployment really took off, there are a lot of dominoes in the economy that probably would get hit by that.

So far it hasn't affected employment that much and if it doesn't I don't think we would have a recession, but if it does, I think there are some big dominoes out there.

The real thing to look at is how much you're getting for your money and not worry about what they're going to do next year. The American economy is going to do fine over time.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/22200828/site/14081545/
"It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot."

沃伦·巴菲特：投资的精髓是，不管你是看公司还是看股票，要看企业的本身，看这个公司将来5年10年的发展，看你对公司的业务了解多少，看你是否喜欢并且信任管理层，如果股票价格合适你就持有。
　　记者：对于一个普通人而言，这容易实践吗？
　　沃伦·巴菲特：简单但是不容易，不需要巨大的智慧，一般的智慧就可以，但很多时候需要一种稳定的情感和态度。赚钱不是明天或者下个星期的问题，而是你买一种5年或10年能够升值的东西。描述起来不难，但真的去做的时候却很难做到，很多人希望很快发财致富，我不懂怎样才能尽快赚钱，我只知道随着时日增长赚到钱。
　　投资股票其实就是投资公司，而每一个普通人都可以用这样的理念积累财富。希望你不要认为自己拥有的股票仅仅是一张价格每天都在变动的凭证，而且一旦某种经济事件或政治事件使你紧张不安就会成为你抛售的候选对象，相反，我希望你将自己想象成为公司的所有者之一。
　　记者：您在选取投资对象时，最关注什么？
　　沃伦·巴菲特：我们的注意力在公司的赚钱能力上，关注从现在开始的未来5年、10年的收益，如果我们认为它的价格跟赚钱能力相比很值，我们就买，能够这样赚钱的公司是我们关注的，如果我们不了解，我们就不投资。我们要确定我们选的是对的，但是对于不懂的我就不投资。如果有1000只股票，对999只我都不知道，我只选那只我了解的。

　　记者：在选择股票的时候，你到底有什么具体的诀窍呢？
　　巴菲特：第一，去学会计，做一个聪明的投资人，而不要做一个冲动的投资人。因为会计是一种通用的商务语言，通过会计财务报表，聪明的投资人会发现企业的内部价值，而冲动的投资人看重的只是股票的外部价格。第二是阅读技能，只投资自己看得明白的公司，如果一个公司的年报让你看不明白，很自然就会怀疑这家公司的诚信度，或者该公司在刻意掩藏什么信息，故意不让投资者明白。第三是耐心等待，一个人一生中真正投资的股票也就四五只，一旦发现了，就要大量买入。