对话巴菲特：你所能犯的最大错误 2010年04月24日

对话巴菲特：你所能犯的最大错误 2010年04月24日 02:47 21世纪经济报道

　　杨琳桦 闫萌

　　内布拉斯加州，奥马哈市。

　　在一年一度、闻名全球的巴郡公司年会(“Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting”)即将召开前，这个安静的美国小城迎来了一批重要客人，他们是来自美国一流高校MBA班的100位尖子生，而宴请主人正是“奥马哈的先知、圣贤”，被美国人称为是“除父亲外最值得尊敬的男人”——沃伦·巴菲特(Warren Buffett)。

　　在宴请学生品尝他最钟爱的牛排前，巴菲特与100位“美国的未来” 展开了封闭式对话，其坦承、交心，让人想起乔布斯在斯坦福的那场著名演讲——在这里，重要的不是具体的投资攻略，而是“人生选择和经验”。

　　“我希望你们认识到，笔头和口头交流的技巧非常重要。如果我可以给你们一个建议的话，你们真要在这方面下功夫。我相信你们每个人都有一个很好的未来，我现在愿马上掏出10万美金去购买你们每个人未来的10%的现金流。”换言之，巴菲特相信在场的每位未来至少能赚100万美金：“但如果你们能把你们的口头和笔头交流技巧再提高一个层次，你们可以把自己的价值至少再提高50%。”

　　在巴菲特的故乡奥马哈，这位有史以来最伟大的投资家开着一辆并不奢华的汽车，看上去很普通，但依靠股票、外汇市场的投资，他是世界上数一、数二的富翁。

　　2010年，巴菲特以净资产470亿美元位列“福布斯榜”第三名；而随着巴郡公司近期公布的2009年亮丽成绩单，其一贯的选股策略及巴郡的投资标的又已再次在美国市场上掀起一股“效法旋风”。

　　巴菲特曾将他的投资理念归结为三点：把股票看成许多微型的商业单元；把市场波动看作朋友而非敌人(利润有时候来自对朋友的愚忠)；购买股票的价格应低于你所能承受的价位。换言之，他购买股票的基础是：假设次日关闭股市、或在五年内不再重新开放。

　　在价值投资理论看来，一旦看到市场波动而认为有利可图，投资就变成了投机，“没有什么比赌博心态更影响投资。”如今，巴菲特所倡导的“价值投资理论”已风靡世界，但事实上，很少有人能像他一样数十年如一日地坚持下去。

　　像大部分功成名就的美国老人一样，对现年80岁的巴菲特而言，有两件事非常重要：一是“慈善”，另一即“传承”。

　　四月春日伊始，这场有关这位老人如何认识自己的更多细节和经验的对话，本报特派记者全程参与。

　　“你能犯的最大错误”

　　问：你以前有没有经历过什么挫折，又如何看待这些失败？

　　巴菲特：肯定有。比如我以前特别不敢在公众场合讲话，不敢表达自己，我一直觉得这是个问题。高中毕业后，我曾经去“卡耐基”的Public Speaking训练班，我都已经写好了一个100美金的check(缴费)，但到门口时又害怕，没有去成。后来我回家左思右想，觉得如果我不能克服的话，这将成为我人生中的一大障碍。后来，我就又去把这个班报了。

　　我想，人不要怕犯错。我人生中犯过的错，没有任何一个失败或错误，最后没有成为一个实际上好的东西的。比如，当时我不敢在公众场合讲话，反倒让我自己能对这个事特别重视，我就真的去报班，并刻意训练自己。现在，这反倒成了我的一个长项。

　　要是我没有在这个方面训练好的话，我想，我都不敢去向我的妻子求婚，让她嫁给我。所以，所有所谓坏的或失败的事背后其实都有一些好的东西在里面。你一定要相信，“信仰”(Faith)是很重要的，你要相信某个东西，到时候，这些坏的事情或暂时失败的事最后都会自己化解，变成一个好事。

　　有时候，人生真的是“塞翁失马、焉知非福”。我年轻时曾与我们州最漂亮的女孩约会，但最后没有成功。我听说她后来离过三次婚，如果我们当时真的在一起，我都无法想象未来会怎么样。所以其实，你能犯的最大的错误，你人生中的最重要决定是，跟什么人结婚。只有在选择未来伴侣这件事上，如果你真的选错了，将让你损失很多。而且这个损失，不仅仅是金钱上的。

　　问：你现在怎么看自己的竞争优势和长处？

　　巴菲特：其实，我对公司运营是一窍不通的，有时候我到工厂去，连男厕所都找不到。(笑)但我很清楚我的优势是什么。对我而言，投资最重要的是两点，一是能找到“护城河”(Moat)，这也是我自己的一个哲学，所谓“护城河”是说，我所投的这个公司或生意是竞争者很难进入与我竞争的，就好像一个护城河一样，我建立起很高的城墙，别人随便攻不破我，这是我判断要不要投一个公司时非常重要的标准之一。

　　第二点是，要有“没有利用过的定价权” (Untapped Pricing Power)。这个意思是说，我现在可以不去涨价，但是，我随时都可以涨价，我现在先把这个公司买下来，买下后我再去提价。这个定价权还没有完全被开发，没有完全被用上。

　　比如，我以前曾投过一个巧克力公司叫“See's”，这是美国非常有名的一个巧克力品牌。买巧克力很多时候是人们在情人节或节日时去买，很多时候又是男人买给自己妻子或爱人。通常，他们每年买的时候不会记得去年一年是花了多少钱买巧克力。我认为这就是一个很好的生意。我在家里装了一个“魔镜”，每年快到情人节时，我就对魔镜说：“魔镜魔镜，今年我可以把See's巧克力提价多少？”这个生意的好处是，它其实每年都在涨价，而这个毫无影响产品本身的销售量。

　　“万变中不变的东西”

　　问：你在选择投资时，会怎么去看一个公司？

　　巴菲特：我提一点“品牌联想”。比如我投可口可乐，这个东西会让人想到快乐，那么可口可乐在奥运会时去做广告，这个联想就和我们的品牌相符合；又比如我投Gillette，这是一个在全球有80%几市场份额的剃须刀品牌，代表“男孩向成熟男人过渡”(Transition to Manhood)，那么当美国系列棒球赛举行时，Gillette会去做广告，因为会有很多年轻男孩去看。我每天都在想，对一个产品和公司来说，能够赢得消费者的心理是最重要的，你赢得消费者心理，你就赢得了市场。

　　再比如，我会比较喜欢像啤酒或剃须刀这些产业，因为在这些行业中，基本没有“无品牌”(Generic Brands)的产品，或者杂牌东西对有品牌商品的威胁非常有限。这样，产业的持续性会比较强，而通常而言，这些有品牌产品的“护城河”也更高，更不容易被别人攻破。相比而言，我的See's 巧克力生意就会更容易受到杂牌竞争，我就指望那些买了杂牌巧克力的丈夫在送给妻子时说：“亲爱的，我买了便宜货……”(笑)

　　问：你为什么不投科技类的产业？现在，科技公司非常多，发展也很快。

　　巴菲特：它不是我的优势。对科技公司认识最深刻的人，我可能在全世界的前一千、前一万名都排不到。我很清楚自己的优势，世界上有成千上万个公司，我一般会把公司分为三类：“好的公司”、“不好的公司”，以及“很难的公司”。

　　好的公司、不好的公司，是我花半天时间就能够看出来的，而那些花了半天时间看不出来的，我也不会强迫自己花半个多月时间去看。我不会强迫自己花费很多时间在一个我不能“Figure out”的公司上。我不是天才，但是我在某一些领域比别人更聪明更有见解。我觉得对一个人来说，最重要的，就是呆在那些你有优势的领域，不要随便走到别的领域去，你一定要有“Focus”，要“Stay Around”。

　　再举一个例子是口香糖的生意。这个世界发展再快、科技进步再快，大家对口香糖的需要是不会变的。这一点，连我的朋友比尔·盖茨都同意。我从来在投资中都是找“万变中不变”的东西，这样能把风险降低。

　　问：很多人在做投资时，情绪会受外界影响。比如可能你投的公司发生了很大波动，又比如你看到别人赚了很多钱。这些年来，你一般怎么控制你的情绪，去进行理性投资？

　　巴菲特：有效控制情绪，能够让我的投资收益再提高30%。(笑)这一点，的确非常重要，我也得益于呆在奥马哈这个小镇，因为这是一个相对不受外界影响的地方，没有什么豪华餐厅，也没有什么大的 Shopping Mall，非常安静。

　　我想，你每天进办公室时，去看和分析那些信息和资料，很重要的一点，即要保持一个稳定情绪和清楚的思维框架。可能是同样一个事实，但由于你情绪的波动，可能会产生一些影响，所以最重要的是，保持“稳定性”。

　　我觉得作为一个好的投资者必须有两点：第一，必须要有一定智力(Intelligence)，幸亏不是需要很多的智力(笑)；另一点就是你这个人的脾气、个性(Temperament)是要符合这件事，你要能相对保持一个稳定情绪。

　　“他们疯了”

　　问：你对金融危机后美国政府经济政策的一些看法是？

　　巴菲特：金融危机产生了一些很不好的影响。当时金融危机时，大家都已不太在乎每个人的信用和质量到底怎么样，你自己的信用和质量已不重要，更重要的是，别人如何认为你的信用和质量，因为那是非常恐慌的时候，没人真正会去花时间想一个公司的能力和价值，比如这个公司以后有没有能力把钱还给我等。你可以信用记录很好，但是我作为银行的话，我就是不相信，而你也无法证明给我。

　　我对金融危机后美国政府在经济政策上的一些看法是，美国政府应使用一些更有力(Aggressive)的税收政策，不然很难持续下去。好比你看我们公司，我们雇员的年薪有赚6万-80万美金不等，他们平均交的税是34%所得税，但我自己却只交16%的税，因为我很多钱是透过投资赚来，税比较低，如果你是工资的话，所得税就比较高。但是我自己都觉得，我交这么一点税是不够的。

　　问：你对现在的中国怎么看，有没有想过在中国有更多投资？

　　巴菲特：我对中国从来都是特别有信心的，我觉得中国的增长不是一时半会的一个虚像，而是一个实实在在、持续性的东西。中国有非常聪明、非常勤奋的人，美国也有非常勤奋的人，但在过去50年中，美国比中国发展要快很多，是因为以前美国有一个更好体制能把人的潜力充分发挥，但是我看到，现在的中国也已经有一个比较好的体制，能把人的潜力充分发挥。这是一件不可思议的事，这个力量太大了。

　　我这里说的体制差异是指，你是更鼓励那些天生继承的产业、皇帝的孩子还是去鼓励真正努力工作的人，那些真正优秀的人是否能获得机会。从这点而言，中国还有更多的人的潜力可以释放出来。我与比尔·盖茨是在1995年第一次去的中国。在这15年中，中国整个经济经历了非常大的一个成长，未来路上可能还会有一些小挫折，但我觉得，中国未来的增长是不容置疑的，这个增长主要还是来自于把人的潜力完全发挥出来。

　　我在中国主要投过两个公司。一个是中石油(12.25,-0.09,-0.73%)，还有一个是比亚迪。我投中石油时，没有看股价，我通常都是先不看股价，因为怕受影响。我先是看了中石油的基本资料，自己做了一个估值，然后发现公司值1000亿美金，但当时中石油股票所反映出的价值只是350亿美金，等于说可以翻三倍，于是，我就买了中国政府能够允许的最多限数。后来有一次，中石油还专门派了一个投资者关系部的人过来讲，因为我是一个很大买家，但其实，我什么也没有听懂(笑)。一年半前，我投了比亚迪，比亚迪有非常多的技术工程师，他们的CEO王传福是一个不平凡(Extraordinary)的人，我也是很看好他们的管理层。

　　问：你怎么看目前的中美关系。

　　巴菲特：我感觉，美国政府有一撮人故意拿中国当“替罪羊”(Scapegoat)，这简直是疯狂、不可理喻的。其实说到底，我觉得全世界人民都应该希望中国更繁荣。你想想，难道有谁希望一个有占全世界人口20%左右的国家永远都那么穷，然后这个国家再拥有核武器的话，难道这样的世界是大家想要的吗？

　　我觉得未来世界最大的一个危险是，第三世界或穷凶极恶的国家或一小撮人拥有核武器或生化武器。所以，如果世界其他地方的人生活水平能够提高的话，其实对所有人都是一样的，是好事。

　　我的感觉是，未来一年中美国政府可能会有一撮人，可能希望尽量把这个问题弄大，可能出于一些政治目的，希望找一些替罪羊。我希望你们这些年轻人在对待这些问题时，能有一个自己的“过滤器”，不要随便被这些东西影响。

Munger 2007 MAY USC speech

Charlie Munger delivered the 2007 Law School Commencement address at the University of Southern California on May 13th. Munger is a guru in the original sense of the Sanskrit word, a person who conveys wisdom. He begins the talk with “Safest way to get what you want is to deserve what you want.” The transcript of the talk is worth reading very very slowly. Take this line near the end, “The highest form a civilization can reach is a seamless web of deserved trust.”

There are too many lines that need highlighting. So I will just post the entire transcript below.

Safest way to get what you want is to deserve what you want.

Deliver to the world what you would buy if you were on the other end.

There is huge pleasure in life to be obtained from getting deserved trust. And the way to get it is to deliver what you would want to buy if the circumstances were reversed.

There’s no love that’s so right as admiration based love and that love should include the instructive dead.

Wisdom acquisition is a moral duty. It’s not something you do just to advance in life. As a corollary to that proposition which is very important, it means that you are hooked for lifetime learning. And without lifetime learning, you people are not going to do very well. You are not going to get very far in life based on what you already know. You’re going to advance in life by what you learn after you leave here.

I constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. They go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.

…so if civilization can progress only with an advanced method of invention, you can progress only when you learn the method of learning.

Nothing has served me better in my long life than continuous learning.

I went through life constantly practicing (because if you don’t practice it, you lose it) the multi-disciplinary approach and I can’t tell you what that’s done for me. It’s made life more fun, it’s made me more constructive, its made me more helpful to others, its made me enormously rich. You name it, that attitude really helps. Now, there are dangers in it because it works so well that if you do it, you will frequently find you’re sitting in the presence of some other expert, maybe even an expert superior to you (supervising you), and you’ll know more than he does about his own specialty, a lot more. You’ll see the correct answer and he’s missed it. That is a very dangerous position to be in. You can cause enormous offense by being right in a way that causes somebody else to lose face. And I never found a perfect way to solve that problem. My advice to you is to learn sometimes to keep your light under a bushel.

Marcus Cicero is famous for saying that the man who doesn’t know what happened before he was born goes through life like a child. That is a very correct idea. If you generalize Cicero , as I think one should, there are all these other things that you should know in addition to history. And those other things are the big ideas in all the other disciplines. It doesn’t help just to know them enough so you can [repeat] them back on an exam and get an A. You have to learn these things in such a way that they’re in a mental latticework in your head and you automatically use them for the rest of your life. If you do that I solemnly promise you that one day you’ll be walking down the street and you’ll look to your right and left and you’ll think “my heavenly days, I’m now one of the of the few most competent people in my whole age cohort.” If you don’t do it, many of the brightest of you will live in the middle ranks or in the shallows.

The way complex adaptive systems work and the way mental constructs work is that problems frequently get easier, I’d even say usually are easier to solve if you turn them around in reverse. In other words, if you want to help India , the question you should ask is not “how can I help India ”, it’s “what is doing the worst damage in India ? What will automatically do the worst damage and how do I avoid it?”

In life, unless you’re more gifted than Einstein, inversion will help you solve problems.

Let me use a little inversion now. What will really fail in life? What do you want to avoid? Such an easy answer: sloth and unreliability. If you’re unreliable it doesn’t matter what your virtues are. Doing what you have faithfully engaged to do should be an automatic part of your conduct. You want to avoid sloth and unreliability.

Another thing I think should be avoided is extremely intense ideology because it cabbages up one’s mind. You see it a lot with T.V. preachers (many have minds made of cabbage) but it can also happen with political ideology. When you’re young it’s easy to drift into loyalties and when you announce that you’re a loyal member and you start shouting the orthodox ideology out, what you’re doing is pounding it in, pounding it in, and you’re gradually ruining your mind. So you want to be very, very careful of this ideology. It’s a big danger. In my mind, I have a little example I use whenever I think about ideology. The example is these Scandinavia canoeists who succeeded in taming all the rapids of Scandinavia and they thought they would tackle the whirlpools of the Aron (sp) Rapids here in the United States . The death rate was 100%. A big whirlpool is not something you want to go into, and I think the same is true about a really deep ideology. I have what I call an iron prescription that helps me keep sane when I naturally drift toward preferring one ideology over another and that is: I say that I’m not entitled to have an opinion on this subject unless I can state the arguments against my position better than the people who support it. I think only when I’ve reached that state am I qualified to speak. This business of not drifting into extreme ideology is a very, very important thing in life.

Another thing that does one in, of course, is the self-serving bias to which we’re all subject. You think the true little me is entitled to do what it wants to do. And, for instance, why shouldn’t the true little me overspend my income. Mozart became the most famous composer in the world but was utterly miserable most of the time, and one of the reasons was because he always overspent his income. If Mozart can’t get by with this kind of asinine conduct, I don’t think you should try.

Generally speaking, envy, resentment, revenge and self-pity are disastrous modes of thoughts. Self-pity gets fairly close to paranoia, and paranoia is one of the very hardest things to reverse. You do not want to drift into self-pity. It’s a ridiculous way to behave and when you avoid it, you get a great advantage over everybody else or almost everybody else because self-pity is a standard condition, and yet you can train yourself out of it.

Of course the self-serving bias is something you want to get out of yourself. Thinking that what’s good for you is good for the wider civilization and rationalizing all these ridiculous conclusions based on this subconscious tendency to serve one’s self is a terribly inaccurate way to think. Of course you want to drive that out of yourself because you want to be wise, not foolish. You also have to allow for the self-serving bias of everybody else because most people are not going to remove it all that successfully, the human condition being what it is. If you don’t allow for self-serving bias in your conduct, again you’re a fool.

The correct answer to situations like [the Saloman case] was given by Ben Franklin, “If you would persuade, appeal to interest not to reason.”

Another thing, perverse incentives. You do not want to be in a perverse incentive system that’s causing you to behave more and more foolishly or worse and worse – incentives are too powerful a control over human cognition or human behavior. If you’re in one, I don’t have a solution for you. You’ll have to figure it out for yourself, but it’s a significant problem.

Perverse associations, also to be avoided. You particularly want to avoid working under somebody you really don’t admire and don’t want to be like. We’re all subject to control to some extent by authority figures, particularly authority figures that are rewarding us. Getting to work under people we admire requires some talent. The way I solved that is I figured out the people I did admire and I maneuvered cleverly without criticizing anybody so I was working entirely under people I admired. You’re outcome in life will be way more satisfactory and way better if you work under people you really admire. The alternative is not a good idea.

Objectivity maintenance. Darwin paid particular attention to disconfirming evidence. Objectivity maintenance routines are totally required in life if you’re going to be a great thinker. There, we’re talking about Darwin ’s special attention to disconfirming evidence and also about checklist routines. Checklist routines avoid a lot of errors. You should have all this elementary wisdom and then you should go through a mental checklist in order to use it. There is no other procedure in the world that will work as well.

The last idea that I found very important is that I realized very early that non-egality would work better in the parts of the world that I wanted to inhabit. What do I mean by non-egality? I mean John Wooden when he was the number one basketball coach in the world. He just said to the bottom five players that you don’t get to play. The top seven did all the playing. Well the top seven learned more, remember the learning machine, they learned more because they did all the playing. And when he got to that system he won more than he had ever won before. I think the game of life, in many respects, is about getting a lot of practice into the hands of the people that have the most aptitude to learn and the most tendency to be learning machines. And if you want the very highest reaches of human civilization, that’s where you have to go. You do not want to choose a brain surgeon for your child from 50 applicants where all of them just take turns doing the procedure. You don’t want your airplanes designed that way. You don’t want your Berkshire Hathaway’s run that way. You want to get the power into the right people.

[Told the story of Max Planck and his chauffeur. After winning the Nobel Prize, Planck toured around giving a speech. The chauffeur memorized the speech and asked if he could give it for him, pretending to be Planck, in Munich and Planck would pretend to be the chauffeur. Planck let him do it and after the speech someone asked a tough question. The real chauffeur said that he couldn’t believe someone in such an advanced city like Munich would ask such an elementary question and as such, he was going to ask his chauffeur (Planck) to reply].
In this world we have two kinds of knowledge. One is Planck knowledge, the people who really know. They’ve paid the dues, they have the aptitude. And then we’ve got chauffeur knowledge. They have learned the talk. They may have a big head of hair, they may have fine temper in the voice, they’ll make a hell of an impression. But in the end, all they have is chauffeur knowledge. I think I’ve just described practically every politician in the United States .

And you are going to have the problem in your life of getting the responsibility into the people with the Planck knowledge [and away from the people with the chauffeur knowledge]. And there are huge forces working against you. My generation has failed you a bit…..but you wouldn’t like it to be too easy now would you?

Another thing that I found is that an intense interest in the subject is indispensable if you’re really going to excel in it. I could force myself to be fairly good in a lot of things but I couldn’t be really good at anything where I didn’t have an intense interest. So to some extent, you’re going to have to follow me. If at all feasible, drift into something where you have an intense interest.

Another thing you have to do, of course, is to have a lot of assiduity. I like that word because it means: sit down on your ass until you do it. Two partners that I chose for one little phase in my life had the following rule when they created a design, build, construction team. They sat down and said, two-man partnership, divide everything equally, here’s the rule: if ever we’re behind in commitments to other people, we will both work 14 hours a day until we’re caught up. Needless to say, that firm didn’t fail. The people died very rich. It’s such a simple idea.

Another thing, of course, is that life will have terrible blows in it, horrible blows, unfair blows. And some people recover and others don’t. And there I think the attitude of Epectitus is the best. He said that every missed chance in life was an opportunity to behave well, every missed chance in life was an opportunity to learn something, and that your duty was not to be submerged in self-pity, but to utilize the terrible blow in constructive fashion. That is a very good idea. You may remember the epitaph which Epectitus left for himself: “Here lies Epectitus, a slave maimed in body, the ultimate in poverty, and the favored of the gods.”

I’ve got a final little idea because I’m all for prudence as well as opportunism. [He talked about his grandfather, Judge Munger, who under spent his income all his life and left his grandmother in comfortable circumstances, which he had to because there were no pensions for federal judges back then. Along the way, he bailed out Charlie’s uncle’s bank back in the ‘30s by taking over 1/3 of his good assets in exchange for bad assets of the bank. He remembered his grandfather’s example in college when he came across] Housman’s poem:

The thoughts of others
Were light and fleeting,
Of lovers’ meeting
Or luck or fame.
Mine were of trouble,
And mine were steady,
So I was ready
When trouble came.

You can say, who wants to go through life anticipating trouble? Well I did. All my life I’ve gone through life anticipating trouble. And here I am, going along in my 84th year and like Epectitus, I’ve had a favored life. It didn’t make me unhappy to anticipate trouble all the time and be ready to perform adequately if trouble came. It didn’t hurt me at all. In fact it helped me.

The last idea I want to give to you…..is that this is not the highest form that a civilization can reach. The highest form a civilization can reach is a seamless web of deserved trust. Not much procedure, just totally reliable people correctly trusting one another. That’s the way an operating room works at the Mayo Clinic. So never forget, when you’re a lawyer, that you may be rewarded for selling this stuff but you don’t have to buy. What you want in your own life is a seamless web of deserved trust. And so if your proposed marriage contract has 47 pages, my suggestion is you not enter.

Well that’s enough for one graduation. I hope these ruminations of an old man are useful to you. In the end I’m like an old valiant for truth and pilgrim’s progress. “My sword I leave to him who can wear it.”

Best of all, you can see the video here. And for those who want to keep a summary of some of the important points, here’s a cheat-sheet.

林园近况 APR-2010

video: http://finance.qq.com/a/20100312/006733.htm

林园语录

看好五粮液

我 现在拿了很多五粮液股票，这次过来看了，发现五粮液的情况比想象的好，准备继续持有。

唱 多茅台

坚决坚定信心，让他们去弄吧，等基金经理都卖完 了，股价可要涨了。

热衷楼市

我在大量购房，刚从重庆过来，在重庆就买了几十套

房子，下午去成都，准备再购置几十套房产。

“瞧，这不是‘股神’林园吗？”几位参加五粮液（000858，收盘价29.00元）股东大会的投资者发出了惊呼。

4月16日上午9点，宜宾，五粮液年度股东大会现场。

“股神”林园的突然现身，让今年五粮液的股东大会显得特别。半天的会议，除了五粮液集团掌门人王国春和五粮液 股份公司董事长唐桥两大焦点人物，林园成为了“意外”的明星。

一件红衬衣，外面套一件皮夹克，林园显得十分精 神，而他一贯的微笑，也在会场上更显亲和力。

林园告诉《每日经济新闻》记者，他现在买了3只 酒类股：贵州茅台（600519，收盘价147.98元）、五粮液和洋河股份（002304，收盘价136.00元）。

“准备继续持有五粮液”

相比往年，今年的五粮液股东大会显得异常和谐。

半天的会议上，几乎没有“不和谐”的声音。虽然在分红议案上，有少数股东投了反对票，但其他议案均 获得出席会议的股东全票表决通过。

大约有一个小时的时间，都是王国春、唐桥与投资者 在互动交流，易方达、嘉实等基金公司人员，以及海通证券食品饮料行业研究员赵勇等，都向公司提了问，但更多的是着眼于公司的销售等情况。

林园的提问则比较独特，他认为，相比别的酒类公司，公司高管的薪酬明显偏低，希望公司能够提高高管的 收入。

本次股东大会，也全票通过了对公司高级管理人员薪酬管理的议案。唐桥在会上 称，在2010年年报中，将披露包括他在内的高管新的薪酬。

四川省另一家白酒企业泸州老窖已经实施股权激励，五粮液方面却迟迟不见动静，投资者也希望公司在股权激励方面有所突 破。

不过，据一位参与了下午唐桥等高管与机构投资者交流会的人士表示，短期推出股权 激励的可能性很小，但宜宾市政府可能会选择给五粮液高管提高现金奖励。

股东大会结束 后，五粮液向玉树地震灾区捐赠1500万元救灾物资，由40辆车运输，运送到灾区。

一 位参与股东大会的研究员称，五粮液的股价在近期涨得好，股东都很开心。他认为，经过一系列整改，五粮液的基本面大幅改善，未来仍有较大的上涨空间。

另一位基金公司人士表示，他们现在拿了很多五粮液股票，这次过来看了，发现五粮液的情况比想象的 好，准备继续持有。

“更看好贵州茅台股票”

会议间歇，林园再度成为焦点人物。

包括众多研究员、中小投资者在内的投资人，纷纷向林园请教投资心得，索要联系方式，不少人还主动要求与林园合影留念。林园也是来者不 拒，招牌式的微笑让他赢得了不少人气。

林园开始大谈投资心得。

“更看好茅台股票。”林园对《每日经济新闻》记者说。

一谈到贵州茅台，林园显得非常激动。“不准卖 （贵州茅台股票）了。”他要求几位他的“粉丝”把茅台股票 “拿好”，“我刚好给北京茅台酒的总经销赵总打了电话，赵总说现在茅台根本拿不到货。”

茅台货紧，很多人想支付预付款来订货。但根据林园对经销商的了解，预付款和经销商根本没关系，他们是按计划 来的。茅台给他们开的票，都开的是今年1月份，而去年12月没开。

“我一直没打电 话，今天想起来了，给赵总打了电话。”林园笑称，看来是茅台搞的“鬼”。

“坚决坚定信 心，让他们去弄吧，等基金经理都卖完了，股价可要涨了。我觉得茅台好，同样去买酒，你比比就知道了。”林园对茅台非常有信心。

林园还和几位持有茅台股票的投资者打赌，称今年贵州茅台的股价可能大幅上涨，他预计能到三四百元。

谈到全国严厉打击酒后驾驶对酒类行业的影响，林园再度给出了不同见解：“酒后驾驶我们不管，没影响，该喝还 要喝。”

虽然高调唱多茅台，但是作为五粮液股东，林园还是对本次股东大会的各项议案投了赞成 票。

在成渝两地大肆买房

“我不急，就睡觉呗。”被问及操作策略，林园仍然这样回答。

被称为股神的林园，在上一轮牛市中出尽风头，他持有的贵州茅台、五粮液、云南白药等公司的股票，给他带来了丰厚利润，江湖传闻林园的资产高达数亿元。

不过，随着2008年熊市的来临，林园的资产也出现了严重缩水，像他在华润深国投信托平台发行的 3期私募信托产品中，有两期都处于亏损中。

而近期，贵州茅台股价大跌，再度让这位股 神受到了考验。

不过，林园的身家的确惊人，据称，仅五粮液的持股量就超过了100万 股，贵州茅台上的持股量更多。

林园告诉 《每日经济新闻》记者，他对贵州茅台股价下跌根本不急，准备继续买进，而近期，他主要是投资房地产市场。

“我在大量购房，刚从重庆过来，在重庆的时候就买了几十套房子，都是恒 大地产的，下午我去成都，准备再购置几十套房产，只买恒大地产的。”

开完股东大会，林园下午就赶往成都。

---------------------------------------------------------------------

一张磨得有些发花,油印已然不清的香山登山月票,“股神”林园指着它向《华夏时报》记者说:“这就是我现在的生活,每天爬爬香山,逛逛公园,悠闲得 很……”

　　曾经叱咤风云,在资本市场写下从8000元到4亿元的财富传奇;曾经饱受争议,因家财资本从20亿到10亿的折戟巨损。经历风 风雨雨的林园“沉默”了不少,从2007年下半年到2009年的现在,熬过熊市的漫漫迷途,又望着市场的渐渐回暖,隐秘两年的林园将一切“轻描淡写”: “我没有任何改变!所有经历只是让我更加坚持,坚持我一直信奉的投资策略。”

　　每天晨起,看看新闻,再睡个回笼觉。林园说,他只恨现在时 间过得太快。

　　之后,是在公园“暴走”两万步,爬香山,上上下下八千米。林园说,现在觉得身体最重要。

　　闲时看看电视, 跟朋友们聚聚,“现在很少买股票,基本不买,那么刻苦会老得很快的。”林园十指一扣,悠闲地坐在北京中信建投证券某大户室的大座椅里,目光漫无目的地落在 窗外,他轻叹:“这地方我都不怎么来了。”

　　“股票也还是那么几只,茅台、五粮液、招商银行……我也一直没动过,每年有不少 的派息,我也花不了多少,一个月六七万,至多也不过10万,其余的收益派送当天就买回那只股票了。”林园说,他暂时没有发现比之前重仓的股票更具投资价值 的个股,“仓是满得很呐。”

　　“我没有变低调”

　　1989年入市,林园东拼西凑才有 初始资金8000元;第一只股票是深发展,数月之间赚得12万;1990－1992年,大量收购深锦兴、琼民源等原始股,这些股票上市之后暴涨十几 倍;1993－1994年,上证指数从 300多点谷底反复攀升,林园以1000万元入市,购得深发展和四川长虹这两只在1995－1998三年 内上涨幅度达9倍的优质股。

　　而“5·19”暴涨行情之后,林园却开始“撤退”,上证指数攀上2100点,他已完全清仓。2003年股市 深陷困顿熊市,林园毅然杀回,低位重仓让他在2006年牛市之初股票市值达4亿元。在2007年业绩巅峰,由林园助手撰写的《中国股神林园炒股秘籍》横空 出世,该书的封面宣称林园其时身家已达20亿元。

　　确实,被林园奉为投资要领的“抓龙头、做绩优股、做价值投资”让他“收益匪浅”,但在 之后一年多的大熊市中,“中国股神”光环渐渐消退,原因在于,顶着“林园”大名,由其亲身管理的私募基金,缩水大半。

　 　在财富缩水的同时,林园也渐渐淡出大众的视野,似乎从“高调”一下子转为“低调”。

　　“这两年我也没有变低调,没有回避媒体。”林园拿 着自己的MOTO,说他自打有了手机开始从来没有换过号码,即便早已从南国深圳转战到了首都北京,“手机24小时开机,谁要打谁打,任何人都能找到我。”

　 　牛熊市跌宕起伏的股指变化在林园看来是“正常而已”,他将一切轻描淡写:“我没有任何改变!所有经历只是让我更加坚持,坚持我一直信奉的投资策略。”

　 　“投资亚都是个错误”

　　对于一向精心寻觅优质蓝筹的林园来说,犯错是一件概率极低的事,但他坦承 “投资亚都”确实是自己的失意一笔。

　　“2006年的时候经朋友推荐,我投资了亚都。”林园谈起这次投资经历有点“说笑”的感觉,“那时 是亚都增资扩股,去过一次就投了,没有经过缜密的调研。”

　　也许是林园眼光有点高,一些业内人士看来,“亚都”这个还未上市的名牌,在北 京这些公司中资质尚属“可以”。

　　创立于1987年,北京亚都家电科技有限公司是国内空气品质（IAQ）领域起步最早、规模最大的企业之 一。2006年9月,亚都公司完成海外融资,成为中外合资民营股份制企业——北京亚都室内环保科技有限公司。目前,亚都总资产7亿多元,拥有员工2000 多人。亚都产品国内市场占有率在80%以上,并远销几十个国家,是室内空气品质行业的中国第一、世界第二的大型企业。

　　“我是公司的第三 大股东,股本占比在10%左右。”林园说,当时投资亚都是看中其行业龙头的地位,也是看好亚都80%的行业占比,“但80%却不是垄断,没有垄断地位就还 会受竞争冲击,没有定价权。”

　　“也不亏损,每年4000万左右的总营收,感觉紧巴巴的。”林园承认亚都这个企业还是不错,“飞利浦一直 要买亚都这个行业龙头,但投资这个不符合垄断特性的企业确实是我的错误。”

　　“十年之后我更有钱”

　 　如今的闲逸生活却不代表林园“抽身”投资界,拿着几只重仓股,他说自己是“看似不投资,实际在投资,我现在做的是更好的投资”。

　　“至 今我还是觉得,财富保值比选股更难,守的比重占了99.9999%,甚至连我自己也不敢说我一定做得到。”林园仍在贯彻“价值投资”,尽管他坦言,自己对 于巴 菲特根本就不感冒,“说的简单鲜明,垄断这个标准就是我的投资经验,我拿着中国最赚 钱的公司,绕圈圈绕半天,投资的人最终不都是要赢利嘛。”

　　只是提起一些质疑,看似散漫的林园也会正襟危坐:“我的信托基金的资本绝大部 分是我自己的,只有少量是身边关系极好的人,我也从来没有让谁谁谁去买哪只股票,从来都没有!这个我绝对敢拍胸脯保证!”

　　“市场的波动 是我们无法预测的,投资价值的唯一标准是公司的经营状况、股票价值的高低。”林园的这段话可以作为他2007年死守大跌的注脚,“2007年高峰的茅台 PE也在49－50倍,这与2002年的情况是不一样的,所以我一直坚持持有。”

　　财富积累是阶段性的,林园现阶段将“健康”奉为至上, 却也不忘给自己设定人生目标。

　　“我敢肯定的是,十年后的我肯定比现在有钱!”说这话的林园底气相当足,他给自己定下铁的纪律——十年都 不会有动作,“不求什么,为了守值。”

　　在林园看来,除了自己重仓的那几只股票已经没有能入他“法眼”的,而即便日后这些股票市值再创新 高,林园也不会拿去卖掉。

　　“我计算了一下,加上我往后十年能取得的分红收益,正好等于我现在的市值。”对于这笔账目,林园说他明明白 白,“股市本钱能够赚回来就可以了,最坏的结果也就是保本,2019年的我,至少比现在有钱。”

　　人物志

　 　林园,深圳钱迷投资顾问有限公司董事长。1963年生于陕西汉中的南郑县,现居北京。学医出身,林园1989年以8000元入市,十几年摸爬滚打,至 2006年林园身价达4亿,被各界追捧为“股神”。2007年,林园出书宣告其身价达20亿元,但2008年大熊市让一切急转直下,林园发布的私募缩水大 半,其本人也逐渐淡出公众视野。　

国寿买入万科12.12, 深发展22, 招行15.11

国寿买入
万科000002: 12.12
600036招行：15.11
深发展A：22