Stocks are simple. All you do is buy shares in a great business for less than the business is intrinsically worth, with management of the highest integrity and ability. Then you own those shares forever. I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.

April 15, 2009

Buffet on BYD

Warren Buffett takes charge
Warren Buffett hasn't just seen the car of the future, he's sitting in the driver's seat. Why he's banking on an obscure Chinese electric car company and a CEO who - no joke - drinks his own battery fluid.
By Marc Gunther
Last Updated: April 13, 2009: 9:29 AM ET
(Fortune Magazine) -- Warren Buffett is famous for his rules of investing: When a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is usually the reputation of the business that remains intact. You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will. And perhaps most famously, Never invest in a business you cannot understand.
So when Buffett's friend and longtime partner in Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB), Charlie Munger, suggested early last year that they invest in BYD, an obscure Chinese battery, mobile phone, and electric car company, one might have predicted Buffett would cite rule No. 3 above. He is, after all, a man who shunned the booming U.S. tech industry during the 1990s.
But Buffett, who is 78, was intrigued by Munger's description of the entrepreneur behind BYD, a man named Wang Chuan-Fu, whom he had met through a mutual friend. "This guy," Munger tells Fortune, "is a combination of Thomas Edison and Jack Welch - something like Edison in solving technical problems, and something like Welch in getting done what he needs to do. I have never seen anything like it."
Coming from Munger, that meant a lot. Munger, the 85-year-old vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, is a curmudgeon who frowns on most investment ideas. "When I call Charlie with an idea," Buffett tells me, "and he says, 'That is really a dumb idea,' that means we should put 100% of our net worth into it. If he says, 'That is the dumbest thing I've ever heard,' then you should put 50% of your net worth into it. Only if he says, 'I'm going to have you committed,' does it mean he really doesn't like the idea."
This time Buffett asked another trusted partner, David Sokol, chairman of a Berkshire-owned utility company called MidAmerican Energy, to travel to China and take a closer look at BYD.
Last fall Berkshire Hathaway bought 10% of BYD for $230 million. The deal, which is awaiting final approval from the Chinese government, didn't get much notice at the time. It was announced in late September, as the global financial markets teetered on the abyss. But Buffett and Munger and Sokol think it is a very big deal indeed. They think BYD has a shot at becoming the world's largest automaker, primarily by selling electric cars, as well as a leader in the fast-growing solar power industry.
Wang Chuan-Fu started BYD (the letters are the initials of the company's Chinese name) in 1995 in Shenzhen, China. A chemist and government researcher, Wang raised some $300,000 from relatives, rented about 2,000 square meters of space, and set out to manufacture rechargeable batteries to compete with imports from Sony and Sanyo. By about 2000, BYD had become one of the world's largest manufacturers of cellphone batteries. The company went on to design and manufacture mobile-phone handsets and parts for Motorola (MOT, Fortune 500), Nokia (NOK), Sony Ericsson, and Samsung.
Wang entered the automobile business in 2003 by buying a Chinese state-owned car company that was all but defunct. He knew very little about making cars but proved to be a quick study. In October a BYD sedan called the F3 became the bestselling sedan in China, topping well-known brands like the Volkswagen Jetta and Toyota (TM) Corolla.
BYD has also begun selling a plug-in electric car with a backup gasoline engine, a move putting it ahead of GM, Nissan, and Toyota. BYD's plug-in, called the F3DM (for "dual mode"), goes farther on a single charge - 62 miles - than other electric vehicles and sells for about $22,000, less than the plug-in Prius and much-hyped Chevy Volt are expected to cost when they hit the market in late 2010. Put simply, this little-known upstart has accelerated ahead of its much bigger rivals in the race to build an affordable electric car. Today BYD employs 130,000 people in 11 factories, eight in China and one each in India, Hungary, and Romania.
Its U.S. operations are small - about 20 people work in a sales and marketing outpost in Elk Grove Village, Ill., near Motorola, and another 20 or so work in San Francisco, not far from Apple. BYD makes about 80% of Motorola's RAZR handsets, as well as batteries for iPods and iPhones and low-cost computers, including the model distributed by Nicholas Negroponte's One Laptop per Child nonprofit based in Cambridge, Mass. Revenues, which have grown by about 45% annually during the past five years, reached $4 billion in 2008.
In acquiring a stake in BYD, Buffett broke a couple of his own rules. "I don't know a thing about cellphones or batteries," he admits. "And I don't know how cars work." But, he adds, "Charlie Munger and Dave Sokol are smart guys, and they do understand it. And there's no question that what's been accomplished since 1995 at BYD is extraordinary."
One more thing reassured him. Berkshire Hathaway first tried to buy 25% of BYD, but Wang turned down the offer. He wanted to be in business with Buffett - to enhance his brand and open doors in the U.S., he says - but he would not let go of more than 10% of BYD's stock. "This was a man who didn't want to sell his company," Buffett says. "That was a good sign."
***
We're lost in Shenzhen. I've flown 8,000 miles to meet Wang, and on the way to the interview, my driver pulls to the side of a dusty highway. He's yelling in Cantonese into his phone and frenetically sketching Chinese characters on the touchscreen of a GPS navigator. The PR woman beside me looks worried. "The GPS isn't working," she says. "Too many new roads."
I can't blame the driver or the GPS - which, it occurs to me, was probably made nearby, since Shenzhen is the manufacturing hub of the global electronics industry, the place your cellphone, digital camera, and laptop probably came from. Just across a river from Hong Kong, Shenzhen is the biggest and fastest-growing city in the world that most Americans cannot find on a map. It's also the Chinese city most like America, because people who live here have come from elsewhere in search of a better life.
When Deng Xiaoping designated Shenzhen as China's first "special economic zone" in 1980, inviting capitalism to take root, it was a fishing village; today, it's a sprawling megacity of 12 million to 14 million people, most of them migrant workers who toil in vast factories like those run by BYD and earn about 1,300 renminbi, or $190, per month.
When we find BYD's new headquarters - a silvery office building that would not look out of place in Silicon Valley - I'm given a tour of the company "museum," which celebrates products and milestones from the firm's brief history, and then escorted into a conference room where plates of apples, bananas, and cherry tomatoes are spread on a table. Wang takes a seat across from me - he is 43, a smallish man, with black hair and glasses - and begins, through an interpreter, to tell me his story.
He started BYD with a modest goal: to edge in on the Japanese-dominated battery business. "Importing batteries from Japan was very expensive," Wang says. "There were import duties, and delivery times were long." He studied Sony and Sanyo patents and took apart batteries to understand how they were made, a "process that involved much trial and error," he says. (Sony and Sanyo later sued BYD, unsuccessfully, for infringing on their patents.)
BYD's breakthrough came when Wang decided to substitute migrant workers for machines. In place of the robotic arms used on Japanese assembly lines, which cost $100,000 or more apiece, BYD actually cut costs by hiring hundreds, then thousands, of people.
"When I first visited the BYD factory, I was shocked," says Daniel Kim, a Merrill Lynch technology analyst based in Hong Kong, who has been to the fully automated production lines in Japan and Korea. "It's a completely different business model." To control quality, BYD broke every job down into basic tasks and applied strict testing protocols. By 2002, BYD had become one of the top four manufacturers worldwide - and the largest Chinese manufacturer - in each of the three rechargeable battery technologies (Li-Ion, NiCad, and NiMH), according to a Harvard Business School case study of the company. And Wang stresses that BYD, unlike Sony and Sanyo, has never faced a recall of its batteries.
Deploying the armies of laborers at BYD is an officer corps of managers and engineers who invent and design the products. Today the company employs about 10,000 engineers who have graduated from the company's training programs - some 40% of those who enter either drop out or are dismissed - and another 7,000 new college graduates are being trained. Wang says the engineers come from China's best schools. "They are the top of the top," he says. "They are very hard-working, and they can compete with anyone." BYD can afford to hire lots of them because their salaries are only about $600 to $700 a month; they also get subsidized housing in company-owned apartment complexes and low-cost meals in BYD canteens. "They're basically breathing, eating, thinking, and working at the company 24/7," says a U.S. executive who has studied BYD.
Wang typically works until 11 p.m. or midnight, five or six days a week. "In China, people of my generation put work first and life second," says the CEO, whose wife takes responsibility for raising their two children.
This "human resource advantage" is "the most important part" of BYD's strategy, Wang says. His engineers investigate a wide array of technologies, from automobile air-conditioning systems that can run on batteries to the design of solar-powered streetlights. Unlike most automakers, BYD manufactures nearly all its cars by itself - not just the engines and body but air conditioning, lamps, seatbelts, airbags, and electronics. "It is difficult for others to compete," Wang says. "If we put our staff in Japan or the U.S., we could not afford to do anything like this."
Wang himself grew up in extreme poverty. His parents, both farmers, died before he entered high school, and he was raised by an older brother and sister. The train ride from the village where he grew up to Central South Industrial University of Technology, where he earned his chemistry degree, took him by Yellow Mountain, a popular destination for hikers and tourists, but he has never visited there. "I didn't go then because we had no money," he says. "I don't go now because we have no time."
As for accumulating wealth? "I'm not interested in it," he claims. He certainly doesn't live a very lavish lifestyle. He was paid about $265,000 in 2008, and he lives in a BYD-owned apartment complex with other engineers. His only indulgences are a Mercedes and a Lexus, and they have a practical purpose: He takes their engines apart to see how they work. On a trip to the U.S., he once tried to disassemble the seat of a Toyota owned by Fred Ni, an executive who was driving him around. Shortly after BYD went public, Wang did something extraordinary: He took approximately 15% of his holdings in BYD and distributed the shares to about 20 other executives and engineers at the company. He still owns roughly 28% of the shares, worth about $1 billion.
The company itself is frugal. Until recently, executives always flew coach. One told me he was appalled when he learned that Ford, which lost billions last year, had staged a gala at the Hotel George V during the Paris auto show. By contrast, the last time BYD executives traveled to the Detroit auto show they rented a suburban house to save the cost of hotel rooms.
This attention to costs is one reason that BYD has made money consistently even as it has expanded into new businesses. Each of BYD's business units - batteries, mobile-phone components, and autos - was profitable in 2008, albeit on a small scale. Overall, net profits were around $187 million. BYD, which is traded on the Hong Kong exchange, has a market value of about $3.8 billion. That's less than Ford (F, Fortune 500) ($7 billion at the beginning of April), but more than General Motors (GM, Fortune 500) ($1.3 billion).
Near the end of our conversation, I ask Wang about the company name. It's been reported that BYD stands for "Build your dreams," but he says he added that as the company motto only later. Others say that as Motorola, Apple, and Berkshire Hathaway have made their way to Shenzhen, the name has taken on yet another meaning: Bring your dollars.
***
When David Sokol toured BYD's operations last summer, Wang took him to a battery factory and explained that BYD wants to make its batteries 100% recyclable. To that end, the company has developed a nontoxic electrolyte fluid. To underscore the point, Wang poured battery fluid into a glass and drank it. "Doesn't taste good," he said, making a face and offering a sip to Sokol.
Sokol declined politely. But he got the message. "His focus there was that if we're going to help solve environmental problems, we can't create new environmental problems with our technology," Sokol says.
Sokol, author of a slim volume on management principles called Pleased but Not Satisfied, sized up Wang during that visit and decided he was an unusually purposeful executive. Sokol says, "Many good entrepreneurs can go from zero to a couple of million in revenues and a couple of hundred people. He's got over 100,000 people. Few can do that." When he got back to the U.S., Sokol told Buffett, "This guy's amazing. You want to meet him."
Even before visiting BYD, Sokol believed in electric cars. His people at MidAmerican have studied clean technologies like batteries and wind power for years because of the threat of climate change. One way or another, Sokol says, energy companies will need to produce more energy while emitting less carbon dioxide.
Electric cars will be one answer. They generate fewer greenhouse gas emissions than cars that burn gasoline, and they have lower fuel costs, even when oil is cheap. That's because electric engines are more efficient than internal-combustion engines, and because generating energy on a large scale (in coal or nuclear plants) is less wasteful than doing it on a small scale (by burning gasoline in an internal-combustion engine).
The numbers look something like this: Assume you drive 12,000 miles a year, gas costs $2 a gallon, and electricity is priced at 12¢ per kilowatt, about what most Americans pay. A gasoline-powered car that gets 20 miles to the gallon - say, a Chevy Impala or a BMW X3 - will have annual fuel costs of $1,200 and generate about 6.6 tons of carbon dioxide. Equip those cars with electric motors, and fuel costs drop to $400 a year and emissions are reduced to about 1.5 tons.
The big problem is that they are expensive to make, and the single largest cost is the battery. Manufacturing a safe, reliable, long-lasting, and fast-charging battery for a car is a complex and costly undertaking. BYD claims to have achieved a breakthrough with its lithium ion ferrous phosphate technology, but no one can be sure whether it will work as promised.
Skeptics say that BYD's battery cannot be both more powerful and cheaper than those made by competitors, and the U.S. Department of Energy has purchased an F3DM to take the battery apart. Chitra Gopal, an analyst with Nomura Securities in Singapore who follows the company closely, says BYD is betting on "entirely new technology, and the ability to produce it at scale and at a low cost remains unproven." William Moore, publisher and editor-in-chief of EV World, an electric car website, says, "They need to persuade people that they are selling a reliable, durable, quality automobile."
Even BYD's admirers say the fit and finish of the company's cars leave much to be desired. "Their cars are way behind Toyota, for sure," Sokol admits. BYD currently exports gasoline-powered cars to Africa, South America, and the Middle East, but they compete on price, not quality.
BYD's first plug-in hybrid, called a dual-mode car, is designed to run primarily on electricity, with an internal- combustion engine for backup. Two all-electric cars - the E3 and the E6 - will follow later this year. Both will be sold first in China, primarily to fleet users: the government, post office, utilities, and taxi companies, all of which will build central fast-charging facilities. Europe, with its high gas prices, is the most promising export market for BYD's electric cars. Wang signed an agreement last year with Autobinck, a Dutch dealer group, to distribute its cars in the Netherlands and five Eastern European countries.
The company hasn't yet decided whether it will enter the U.S. market, where the economics of electric cars are not as compelling. Sokol, who now sits on BYD's board, says BYD could instead become a battery supplier to global automakers. Some Americans, though, are eager to do business with BYD. The day after Fortune's visit to BYD, Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski arrived to test-drive an electric car and urge the company to import through the port of Portland. Meanwhile, BYD researchers are on to their next big idea, a product they call a Home Clean Power Solution. It's essentially a set of rooftop solar photovoltaic panels with batteries built in to store power for use when the sun's not out, all to be designed and manufactured by BYD. "Solar is an endless source of energy," Wang says. "With better technology, we can reduce the costs."
Wang is also focused on building a stronger executive team to drive the company forward. "The good news is, he's 42 years old," Sokol says. "The bad news is that he's clearly the brains behind the organization, and the drive. He has to develop a team faster, but I think he knows that." Last winter it was Sokol's turn to lead Wang on a tour of his home country. They started in Detroit, where BYD's cars generated buzz at the North American Auto Show, and wound up on the West Coast, where Wang met for the first time with Charlie Munger. In between, they stopped in Omaha.
"How did BYD get so far ahead?" Warren Buffett asked Wang, speaking through a translator. "Our company is built on technological know-how," Wang answered. Wary as always of a technology play, Buffett asked how BYD would sustain its lead. "We'll never, never rest," Wang replied.
Buffett may not understand batteries or cars, or Mandarin for that matter. Drive, however, is something that needs no translation.

April 10, 2009

这应该是个反转,而不是反弹 - 孙明春

4月10日,中国股市几近“山河一片红”。上证指数以2.7%的涨幅,迎接一季度中国宏观经济数据的出炉。
  向上走?向下走?反弹?反转?人们兴奋、痛苦、困惑,总在试图从任何蛛丝马迹里提前寻找到中国经济的方向。
  “这应该是个反转,而不是反弹。”10日当天,野村证券中国区首席经济学家孙明春接受本报记者专访时,对中国经济走势给出了自己的判断。
4万亿经济刺激方案等一系列宏观政策效果逐步显现,大部分行业存货调整已近尾声,国内终端需求持续强劲,出口降幅将有所收窄——在孙明春看来,上述几大因素决定了,从二季度开始中国经济将重拾升势,转向“V”形曲线的上升轨迹,尽管现在“只是个开始”。
  2007年10月,当中国经济一路高歌猛进之时,时为雷曼兄弟公司中国区首席经济学家的孙明春却悲观地提出,中国经济正在步入下行通道;2008年12月,当人们非常悲观地看待中国经济前景之时,孙明春反而乐观地认为,积极因素将很快显现。
  事实证明,这两次都让孙明春说对了。而今,在春意盎然的四月,孙明春再度拿出了自己的“魔法水晶瓶”。这一次,结果会怎样?
  是反转,不是反弹
  《21世纪》:近两个月,中国经济的一些先行指标开始出现回暖迹象,比如发电量、房地产与汽车销售量、新开工项目计划投资等。针对中国一季度乃至年内经济走势,市场也逐步出现比较明显的乐观情绪。你怎么看待当下的形势?这些指标的回暖预示的是中国经济的反弹还是反转?
  孙:我持相对乐观的看法,这应该是个反转,而不是反弹。
  《21世纪》:依据何在?
  孙:我的依据主要来自三个方面,包括4万亿经济刺激方案在内一系列宏观政策效果的逐步显现;大部分行业存货调整已近尾声;国内终端需求持续强劲。
  《21世纪》:你怎么判断经济刺激政策对推动经济反转的效果影响?
  孙:从2月中旬开始,我们已经开始看到经济刺激政策效果在逐渐显现。PMI数据的持续上升已经对此有所反映。
  PMI是一种扩散指数,它反映的不是订单绝对量,而是拿到订单企业范围的扩散程度,在经济中的渗透度。这个数据的向好,相当有代表性。
  中国的经济刺激政策从去年11月份推出,但中间经过一个冬季,很多北方的项目都没有正式开工,要等到3月中下旬、4月初才逐步开始,而珠港澳大桥项目,甚至要到今年11月份开工。这样看来,目前不过是最初的效应而已。
  企业现阶段一般是订单先行,3月份订单已经显出效果,传导效应将会一环环传递下去的。比如铁路建设,需要列车订单的提前告知,并不是一两个月的事情,而列车制造企业将会再给上游配件之类企业下订单,配件企业向再上游直至原材料企业下订单,不断向上游传递。
  所以,随着经济刺激政策的逐步落实,接下来刺激效果也会越来越明显。
  《21世纪》:你又怎样看企业“去库存化”进程对宏观经济的影响?
  孙:我们需要注意的是,这次发生在中国的存货调整,主要发生在原材料方面,而不是产成品方面。中国经济2008年四季度的继续下行,一个很重要的因素就是企业大量被动囤积原材料后的急速存货调整。
  2007年下半年到2008年上半年,全球商品价格猛涨,导致国内原材料价格猛涨,企业不得不提前囤积很多原料,正常库存两三个月,有些企业甚至达到七八个月的库存。这导致上游原材料企业生产相当强劲,但生产出来的东西都停留在仓库里。
  2008年8、9月份,原材料价格企稳,又有信贷紧缩,市场供需发生逆转,需求消失,价格下行,企业不但不买,而且要推迟买,因为这样越往后越省钱。
  新的逆向预期带来的结果便是钢铁煤炭企业的被迫减产,去库存化过程中,企业产能利用率降到三分之一左右,主要发生在上游企业。
  如今,根据我们掌握的情况,发生在2008年四季度的大规模存货调整已近尾声。存货调整结束后,产能通常会恢复到一个相对正常水平。虽然需求下落,但企业产能利用率要比存货调整期间要好。所以数据好起来应该说是在意料之中的。
  同时,中国的最终需求这方面虽然有所减弱,但整体看仍然很强劲,强于2003、2004、2005年。消费上,2008年第四季度名义社会品零售总额增长20%,今年1、2月这一数据实际增长16%左右。投资需求也是相当强,26%,实际更高,因为投资品价格在回落。
  这都为宏观经济实现反转提供了坚实的基础。
  目前还只是开始
  《21世纪》:在看到一些先行指标有回暖迹象的同时,我们也注意到了钢价短暂回升后的持续下行,钢铁生产和新订单指数继续大幅度下降。你怎么解释这种现象?如果是反转,现在处在反转的什么阶段?
  孙:现在还早,目前还只是反转的开始。
  实际上,企业的订单才刚刚开始链条传递。如果想传递到经济各个行业,尤其是最终的钢铁需求这个环节,是需要点时间的。而且,钢铁行业目前存货过多,包括不久前又一轮新的存货增加,再加上房地产行业的复苏尚待时日,所以这一行业不大可能这么快好起来,真正好转恐怕要等到下半年。
  《21世纪》:需要追问的是,在国际形势仍然十分严峻的情况下,投资、消费两辆马车是否能拉住逆向行驶的另一辆——出口?
  孙:的确,国外经济形势不会很快好起来。尽管最坏的时候可能已经过去了,但从2008年四季度开始,全球也面临着巨大的存货调整。全球经济很可能是“L”形增长,现在虽然已到“L”的拐点,经济开始企稳走平,但可能还会延续负增长。
  我们要问的是,2月份中国出口下降26%,这一大幅下降趋势是否还会延续?我认为,不会的。26%的下滑速度,是在全球经济巨大的存货调整过程中发生的,是暂时的。一旦全球经济企稳,这一局面将会有所改观。
  全球贸易额与全球GDP增长正相关。一个简单的事实是,假设2009年全球GDP下降3%,那么全球贸易不会下降10%这样的量级。那么中国出口会下降那么多吗?除非中国大量丢掉市场份额,而这显然是不现实的。
  我的判断是,中国的出口6、7月份会稳定,下降幅度会回到10%以内。
  《21世纪》:那么另外一个需要探究的问题是,中国外贸依存度这么大,怎么看外需明显疲软对中国就业、收入乃至国内消费的冲击?
  孙:不要夸大出口行业在中国经济中所占的比重。
  按照我们的估算,整个出口行业,包括很多与之相关行业全部加起来,占中国就业的比重也就15%,即便出口下降20%,影响到的就业人口不过3%,1700多万人,对全中国8亿人口收入来讲,影响有限。
  从4月份开始,中国就业形势会有所好转。但中国的人口多、正在推进城镇化,即便经济增长达到10%,就业压力同样会很大。但综合来看,目前的就业压力不一定会带来收入的负增长或者不增长,对消费的影响也是有限的。
  《21世纪》:基于你的分析,你对未来一段时期中国GDP、CPI、PPI走势作何预判?
  孙:对于GDP,我们预判将是个V形的走势。今年一季度会比较差,和去年四季度不相上下。二季度会明显上行,这种上升势头可以至少保持到明年一季度。今年全年GDP可以达到8%,年底接近10%。
  CPI因为去年年初冰冻灾害的基数效应,近几个月还会是负增长,而下半年随着基数效应的消失,CPI将有所回升,全年预期增长0.6%。
  PPI我们不做太多预测。因为中国目前仍然产能过剩,成本压力很难转嫁出去,PPI的先行效果很难体现。

April 03, 2009

王石 评房价

2009-3-31一、致股东回顾2008并非易事——这一年有如此众多的事件发生,这一年与2007的反差如此强烈。无论对中国住宅行业还是万科而言,2008显然无法以辉煌载入史册。但惟其如此,它带来了更多引人深思的内容,而这或许是我们得以在2008收获的最大财富。收益与空间由“房地产”联想到“高利润”,将房价上涨视为对房地产业的利好因素,恐怕已是行业内外常见的一种习惯性思维。尽管万科在这个问题上一直持有不同的看法,在2005年就提出了“房价过快上涨无人受益,平稳发展才是行业之福”的观点。但即使对于万科,可能也直到2008年,才从事实中获得了最深刻的体验。其实从原理上看,中国住宅业根本不应该是一个高收益行业。它是一个自由准入的行业,也不存在高耸的技术壁垒;在土地交易完全市场化的背景下,部分先发企业在不可替代资源上的独占性已不复存在,随着存量土地资源的逐步消耗,这一方面的先发者优势正在迅速弱化并日渐消亡。这样一个行业,所能够期待的,只能是一个公平的收益水平。一个自由准入的行业,如果行业内外却普遍认为它是高收益的,其结果可想而知。外部资金的涌入和行业内的习惯性思维,造成了2007年土地市场的亢奋,造成了“面粉贵过面包”的异常情形。而这一故事在2008年嘎然而止——2007年高价获取的土地,至少数年之内,恐怕不要说超额收益,甚至连获得社会平均收益水平都变得艰难。是这样,2007年的繁荣盛景确实曾经发生,但就如构建在沙滩之上的七宝楼台,不可能长久存在。也不要问2007年的情景会否重现。中国崛起及其对世界经济格局的改变还远未完成,中国住宅行业也依然有待成熟,因此这一情景未来并非不可能、只是不应该再出现了——它并非一个美丽的憧憬,而是一种值得警惕的情形。而反过来说,2008或许并不辉煌,但它的存在是必要的。它是中国住宅行业一个完整周期、是中国住宅企业一个完整历程中,不可能缺少的一个环节。当2008在时光册页上定格之后,中国房地产行业运转逻辑的完整脉络,才得以全部呈现为事实。那么,打破高收益神话后,中国房地产行业的吸引力究竟何在?其实,这个行业真正的价值,从来都不在于高收益率,而在于其高成长性。它真实的魅力,也根本不在过去,而在未来。作为人口最多、迅速崛起的经济大国,最终问鼎世界经济舞台王座的中国行业,可能不止一个;而在它们当中,成长空间如此之大、目前的集中度却又如此之低的,则首推房地产。下面这段文字曾经出现在万科2007年度报告中,请允许我们在此复述一遍。因为,它并非一时的感触,而是我们对行业长期持有的信念:“类似中国正在经历的高速现代化、城市化发展进程,在每个国家的历史上恐怕都只有一次机会。身处这一特定历史阶段,又与城市化紧密相关的中国住宅行业,其足迹注定无法平凡。类似的亢奋和接踵而3来的回归,在未来仍可能再次甚至多次降临。作为这个领域的从业者,万科团队的成员将尽力守住一颗平常心。撇去表面的喧哗,真实的购买力始终在悄然生长,而住宅业迈向成熟的步伐也从未停歇。作为一个自由准入的行业,所有资源和机会对每个参与者正日益变得公平。凭借一笔先得的资源就可以坐收利润的时代已经结束,未来只有那些真正创造价值的企业才能在这个充满竞争的行业中长存;只有那些转化资源效率最高、能以最低消耗创造最高性价比产品的企业才能最终赢得胜利者的桂冠。”自由准入、充分竞争、公平收益、广阔空间——至少对于万科来说,我们认为这是值得期待的未来。预测与应变2007年第四季度,当行业中亢奋心态还颇为盛行的时候,万科一个截然不同的观点受到了社会的普遍关注,并被命名为“拐点论”。这一观点迅速引发了业内普遍的争论,并承受了尖锐的质疑。随着2008年行业调整的全面来临,在事实面前这些争论和质疑已变得不再需要。而希望万科对未来市场做出预测的声音在不断增加,其中问得最多的一个问题是——市场的底部在哪里,而它又将在何时出现?然而遗憾的是,这是一个万科无法回答的问题。在我们看来,市场的顶点和底部根本无法预测。2007年市场顶点出现和“拐点论”引发争议,这两件事情确实在2007年的第四季度同时发生,但这只是时间上的巧合。万科对市场亢奋情绪的警惕,早在2007年的中期报告中已经有明确的表述,只是并未马上引起市场的关注而已。换句话说,对2007年的市场顶点,万科从未做出过具体时间上的预测。市场的顶点与底部无法预测,这是因为,市场是一个分散决策的复杂系统。市场的每个参与者都具有各不相同的心态和判断,各自决定自己的行为,而他们的行为或多或少都影响着市场的结果。最极端的买方行为决定了市场的顶点,而最极端的卖方行为决定着市场的底部。但对不确定对象的极端行为做出准确预测,这本来就是一件不可能的事情。另一方面,房地产一直、也永远是一个与宏观经济环境紧密相关的行业。因此,宏观经济短期趋势的可预测性,很大程度上决定着房地产市场的可预测性。而当前全球经济正处于极为特殊的时刻,中国住宅市场短期内的变动可能也极其复杂,已经超出了企业的预测能力。企业难以对未来即将发生的短期波动做出精确的事先描述,这看似一个并不乐观的结论。但所幸的是,对于企业而言,更重要的并不是预测,而是应变。企业可以也应该做到的,是对行业长期的发展方向始终保持认识,对市场环境已经发生的改变及时做出判断,在此基础上对未来可能出现的各种短期变动进行分析,并分别制订应对的预案,在相关变化逐渐明朗的同时迅速采取行动。锐见与慎行外界对万科的预测能力,或许给予了过高的评价或期望。而与之相伴生的是另一个疑问:既然万科早在2007年年中,就已经对市场的过热作出了预警,那为何在2007年的下半年,万科依然购置了一些高价土4地?万科是否存在言行不一的情况,万科的执行力是否存在问题?多年以来,房地产一直备受关注,而万科始终生活在聚光灯下。这提升了万科的影响力和号召力,尤其在进入新城市的时候,它为万科业务的迅速展开提供了助益。但另一方面,万科的一举一动,其中包含的信息,却也都存在被舆论放大的可能。万科在2007年下半年的购地行为,被舆论所高度关注。但万科放弃的地块有多少,恐怕并不为外界所知。而万科在2007年销售额增长超过一倍的情况下,购置土地面积反而低于2006年,这一事实则多少被忽略了。2007年土地价格出现了远高于房价的大幅上涨,到下半年更达到了历史的顶峰。在这样的情况下,企业除非完全停止购地,否则购入的一定是高价土地。但完全停止购地,这是一个不容易作出的决定。土地不同于其他的生产原料,难以从市场上随时购得,企业如不能提前购入一定量土地,经营的持续性都会遭遇挑战,更遑论发展。而万科是全球大型住宅企业当中,土地保有年限最短的企业之一;从2004年开始,万科每年年底的土地储备量,都低于未来两年的开工量。对万科而言,完全停止购地,是一个非常极端的决定。作出极端行为,是一种大胆、但风险很高的经营风格。极端行为可能带来伟大的成功,但也可能招致致命的失误。从万科的企业性格来看,稳健经营是万科一贯坚持的风格。恐怕我们宁可放弃伟大成功的机会,也要确保不犯下致命的错误。早在2005年,当市场尚存疑虑的时候,万科做出了将未来三年设定为高速发展期的决定,事实也验证了万科的这一判断。但即便如此,万科也从没有试图超越自身的能力和资源去谋求超常规的扩张。稳健的经营风格,来自于内心深处的敬畏。在我们看来,世界充满不确定性,而我们的认知能力是有限的。市场中许多机会稍纵即逝,企业需要及时作出决定。但与此同时,我们需要对自身理性的局限有清醒的认识,尤其当我们的观点与市场普遍看法存在巨大差异的时候,对自信保持一定的克制,恐怕是应该的。锐利的观察和鲜明的观点,这是我们一直期望能够不断提升的一种能力。但如果离开谨慎行事的自制力,则这种能力给企业带来的,可能不仅仅是成功和辉煌。大道与原点2008年行业发生的调整其实并不可怕,它是必然的,甚至是必需的;它带来的也可能是机会;但与此相对应,真正值得警惕的是之前短暂的过度繁荣。某种程度上说,我们应该感谢这一次市场调整的到来。调整给我们带来的第一个机会,其实是让我们冷静下来进行反思和自我完善的机会。当行业处于牛市状态时,企业对专业能力的追求、奋发图强的斗志容易出现松懈。当看上去任何房屋都可以顺利售出的时候,当房价上升使赚钱变得越来越“容易”的时候,我们是否还孜孜以求地执着于研究客户需求,不断改善产品、服务的品质和性价比?我们是否做到了尽可能精打细算,最合理地分配成5本、控制费用,以实现股东利益的最大化?我们是否还在竭尽全力分析市场、寻找最有效率的销售渠道和方式?——对这些问题进行深入反思的动力,正是2008带给我们的珍贵礼物。无论2008有多么艰难,也无论2009有多少不确定性,行业发展的大趋势仍未发生任何根本性的动摇,而商业社会的基本逻辑更属永恒不变。这一基本逻辑就是,企业存在的最终理由,是为投资者创造价值;企业活动的最终目标,是以尽可能少的资源消耗,去尽可能多、尽可能好地满足社会需求。在2009年乃至更远的未来,我们需要回到商业逻辑的原点,需要更加尊重市场规律,更加重视客户需求。我们需要更加信守一贯主张的价值观念——简单、透明、规范与责任。无论在内部还是外部,我们需要进一步体现企业创立时的初衷——对人的尊重,需要进一步体现“健康丰盛”的生活追求。尽管市场仍然处在调整期内,但万科在产业化的道路上的探索不会松懈。这不仅是行业发展必由的方向,也是万科未来核心竞争力的重要来源之一。做到这些,我们才能持续为股东创造更多的价值。惆怅与感恩2008年市场发生的一切,基本都在预料之中,并无需惊慌或失落。但回顾2008,不能说没有遗憾。遗憾的是,在2007年,尽管在行业宏观趋势上做出了基本正确的判断,但我们在牛市的大环境中并未能完全脱俗。过于舒适的环境,使得我们在经营细节上暴露出诸多不足,我们一些专业能力表现甚至出现了下滑的迹象。这已经成为2009年万科面临的最大挑战之一。2008年,万科24周岁。24年的岁月在赋予万科强壮体格的同时,并没有改变万科年轻的内心。因为年轻,我们看到了在进入新的发展阶段后自身的不成熟;也因为年轻,所以我们并不缺乏接受批评和直面挫折的勇气。2009年万科的主题词只有两个字:“零”和“壹”。这一主题词的解读是“万象更新·美好明天”。“零”,既是原点,也是起点。万科将放下往日的成功,修正过去的不足;以永远年轻的锐气,将每一天视为新的起跑点。“壹”,象征着希望,也代表着行动。千里之行,始于足下,从现在开始,万科将一步一步,脚踏实地,与股东共同迎接美好的未来。
2008年01月30日  住在杭州网

  “2008年暴涨反弹的几率不大。”万科集团董事长王石日前在深圳地产大腕的私人聚会上惊爆此言。这与经济学家易宪容最新的言论异曲同工——“新的按揭贷款政策可能直接将30%的投资者排除出市场,并因此抑制市场上一半左右的需求”。
  “2005到2006年,中央每调控一次,深圳的房价就反弹一次,但是从紧银行货币政策一出,整个市场傻眼了,所以,开发商或市场与政策博弈是没有任何意义的。”王石对于此次的宏观调控颇有信心。
  “2008年,中央政府将在按揭贷款的审查机制上出台新的政策,审查将更严格。”易宪容以北京为例,他说北京近期已经出台政策,要求严格审批按揭贷款,贷款人必须有银行的对账单。
  事实上,对于房地产按揭贷款的审查政策在2003年便已出台,但易宪容认为,银行在其后的相关执行过程中并未有效执行,但美国次贷危机使银行及政府意识到了按揭贷款的风险。
  “这将直接把30%的投资者排除出市场,当前市场上一半左右的需求将被抑制。”易宪容认为,被排除出市场的主要是投资需求。
  “按揭贷款政策主要抑制了投资需求,让投资需求不再有资格进入房地产市场。”易宪容说,“开发商定价是否高已经不重要了,因为,当自住需求占市场主导地位的时候,开发商无论将房价定多高,都要考虑市场的实际购买力。”
  王石认为他对房价具有某种先见之明:“深圳房价也就是2006年下半年暴涨起来的,我密切注视着地产的动态,房价每月暴涨,涨得我心惊肉跳。万科东莞某高档项目,原计划卖1万元/平方米就不错了,后来,价格翻番,我立即部署该项目实行‘买房送宝马’的举措,目的是谨防政策出台,万科该项目降价的空间有50万元。”
  “2007年12月是地产最低迷期,万科一个月销了60亿元,这个数据是可观的,万科设置了市场低迷对策。”这也是万科抗风险能力强的表现。万科的确在更多的城市开始降低房价以达到快速销售的目的。
  “2008年市场观望仍会持续数月,房价如果要反弹,最快也要等到2008下半年,小涨是可能的,暴涨反弹的几率不大。”王石称。
  “中国的经济形式依然良好,并没有出现日本经济泡沫、亚洲金融风暴、(中国)香港地产泡沫的征兆,中国地产的刚性需求仍然存在,2008年进入地产调整是一件好事。”王石说。
  深圳兰江地产副总裁杨大谷的观点与王石不约而同:“2008年进入地产调整年,不会引发地产大幅度的暴跌,房价是稳中有升,但暴涨的可能性不大。”他认为,在调控时期,最难的是那些不高又不低,处于中流品质,但标价颇高的项目。
王石:房价非理性 下跌是必然    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------    2008-1-28 9:18:21 东方早报        万科集团董事长王石昨日(27日)在接受采访时表示,房价调整甚至下跌是因为房价增长已经高出消费者收入太多,理性回归是必然趋势。他还建议,青年人在40岁之前没有必要急着买房。     2007年,楼市惯有的“金九银十”没有出现,在王石看来,这是因为房价的上涨水平已经远远高于收入增长的水平,因此宏观调控加重后,疯狂上涨的房价得到了抑制。     王石认为,此轮宏观调控与以往不同,不仅局限于房地产,而且是对整个流动资金过剩、通货膨胀压力加大的经济大环境的调整,是货币政策从适度从紧到从紧的转变。     比照2004、2005年宏观调控之后房价继续上涨的情况,王石认为,当时房价继续上涨的根本原因在于市场的价格与消费者收入的增长是一种正向的关系,并非调控失效。然而,在本轮调控中,万科在广州、深圳等地的楼盘率先降价,市场反应不错,说明房价调整并非完全因为宏观调控,“房价已经跟收入增长脱钩太远,有些甚至出现地价比房价还高,"面粉比面包还贵"的非理性现象。因此,即便没有宏观调控,价高量缩,房价也会下降,最后趋于理性。”     在房价理性回归过程中,有的地方房价会下降,有的微升,有的不升不降,但是总的趋势来讲,房价还是会往上升的。王石说,现在的关键是房价的上涨速度,家庭收入增长的速度快过房价上涨的速度,这才是合理的、理性的、可持续的。     王石进一步解释道,拐点有三个意思:一是从大涨到大跌,二是从牛市到熊市,三是价格的理性回归,而万科所指的拐点是指价格的理性回归。他认为,珠三角的房价下调已经形成拐点。     王石还建议,40岁之前可以先租房。“作为我的观点来讲,(个人)属于没有最后(发展)定型,最后还有抱负有理想,在40岁之前应该还是租房为好。”他说。     对年轻人结婚即要买房的普遍情况,王石建议结婚也可以先租房:“如果从我的角度来说,我是地产开发商,肯定建议你买房,而且是买万科的房子,我们从大学生公寓到最后退休的房子都有。但是比照国外的城市统计来讲,20多岁就买房的非常少,尤其是大城市,对即将要结婚成家的年轻人来说,也是先租房为好。”
王石:房价疯涨让人心惊肉跳 房市将理性回归2007-12-26 03:30:19 来源: 第一财经日报(上海)  进入王石贴吧 共 107 条 黑马推荐  对于“拐点”,王石认为是出现了“转折”,这个转折不是像股票市场这样大升大跌,是从一种市转到另外一种市,在带有这种盲目地亢奋的预期的房地产增值情况下,之前盲目地带有推进性的追风,变为一种理性的回归,类似的回归,可以指广州、深圳,也可以用于全国。
2008年之后,万科绝不拿地王。这是其董事长王石日前的对外表态。在广州大幅降价激起千层浪之后,万科从房价可能回调的判断延伸开来,要对拿地的方式进行反思。
之前一年中,万科在拿地时表现出来的“亢奋”已经让外界将它看成是“靠拿地王的地来竞争”。这就意味着万科要拿高地价,维持高房价,以高地价维持高房价。在王石看来,这显然不是万科的本意。
但是的确,整个房地产市场在去年都萦绕着一种“亢奋”的气息,万科只不过是其中之一。什么叫“亢奋”?就是已经控制不了自己的往上涨这种趋势继续下去。王石坦言,这种房价的疯狂上涨让他感到一种“心惊肉跳”。他希望万科保持冷静,不能追风。
于是,从10月份开始,万科在广州市场开始大幅调价。最近,王石又多次就房地产市场明年的发展态势发表了自己的评论,其中包括2008年房地产市场拐点到来。
对于“拐点”,王石认为是出现了“转折”,这个转折不是像股票市场这样大升大跌,是从一种市转到另外一种市,在带有这种盲目地亢奋的预期的房地产增值情况下,之前盲目地带有推进性的追风,变为一种理性的回归,类似的回归,可以指广州、深圳,也可以用于全国。
王石判断的依据在于最近中央连续的加息,连续对于房地产的调控政策,再加上提高银行的准备金。更为直观的是数字所反映出的市场变动。从今年10月份和去年10月份同期的数字对比来看,深圳销售量萎缩82%,广州也萎缩了44%;北京下降了9.2%;上海下降15%。
当然,“下降”不足以来涵盖整个市场的状况。因为夹在广州和深圳之间的东莞上升了27%、北京销售量下跌的同时天津在上升;上海在下降时杭州却上涨20%多。“中国房地产市场这么大,不能一概而论。确实,市场上之前一种盲目的带有亢奋的,追求担心不买价格会更贵这样的趋势,现在已经在趋于理性。”王石说。
所谓理性,就是“当中产阶层感觉到房子买不起的时候,你就要警惕了,因为这个市场可能要出问题”。由此,王石认为:一方面,消费者已经承受不住了;第二,现在通货膨胀的压力,加之投资热钱的增加,导致一定要货币回笼,将通货膨胀压下来,这其中,房地产一定首当其冲。最终,必然导致价格调整是的必然性。
从目前看来,万科的价格调整并非在全国展开,而在广州一地的下调,给本身已经热到烫手的市场泼了一瓢冷水。虽然这些言论令业内一些企业愤慨,有业内人士针对万科的言论评价说:“降价打折这种事情,找万科吧。我们坚决不会调整价格。”
“万科价格的调整,一个是自己的反思,再一个是对宏观调控政策最直接的回应。”王石坚定自己的立场。
从房价可能调整的判断延伸开去,接下来,就是土地价格可能产生的回调。实际的情况是,10月份以来,一些一线城市的二手房交易量萎缩,一线城市的土地招标中也开始出现了流标。
“这一年多土地价格频现标王,甚至是‘面粉贵过面包’,这时候让他降价非常痛苦了,如果还是以你原来土地成本价来计算,市场对你是毫不留情的,应该进行调整。再一个应该看到,正因为带有一种盲目的投机性的购房抑制住之后,即使现在应该看到土地供应有限,土地价格的疯涨也就抑制下来了。”王石认为。
最近关于楼市拐点的问题成为各界最关注的焦点,经济半小时栏目前不久曾报道过深圳和广州房价下跌的情况,引发了楼市拐点的讨论,其中万科董事局主席王石在接受媒体采访时表示,深圳楼市确实出现拐点,万科同时下调了自己在深圳和广州的楼盘售价,降价幅度最高达到15%,那么深圳和广州所出现的这种拐点是暂时的还是代表着一种趋势?这种降价的趋势有可能在全国的其他城市比如北京上海出现吗?我们今天的节目专门采访了万科集团董事会主席王石。    “中产阶级买不起房,这个房市有问题”    赵赫:“王总,我知道在前不久一个会议上,你曾经表达了你的观点,说现在中国楼市已经出现拐点,你具体是指什么?”    王石:“当时是在一次公益活动在回答记者提问的时候,记者问的问题很长,大意思是广州的房价下降,深圳房价下降,作为万科的董事会主席,你是不是认为现在楼市出现拐点?我指的拐点第一个是出现了一个转折,这个转折不是像股票市场这样大升大跌,是从一种市转到另外一种市,可能是带有这种盲目的亢奋的预期的房地产增值情况下,一种盲目的带有推进性的追风,已经是一种理性的回归,显然这是指理性的回归,是指广州、深圳,也是一种理性回归,这种理性回归用于全国也可以这样说,因为最近中央连续的加息,连续对于房地产的调控政策,再加上提高银行的准备金,可以预期准备金还会继续调,显然房市的需求、正常消费都有很大的影响,实际上从万科掌握的资料来讲,就深圳、广州、东莞、上海、杭州、北京、天津这么几个城市来比较,今年10月份和去年10月份同期差别是非常大的,比如说深圳和去年同期10月份相比,他楼市萎缩的82%,萎缩的是非常厉害的,这个有两个因素,一个是供应量有限,第二个需求量也受到很大的抑制,广州萎缩了44%,在广州、深圳中间的东莞却上升了27%,北京和去年相比是有所下降,按照我们掌握的资料是下降9.2%,但是旁边的天津是在上升,上海是下降15%,但是杭州上涨20%几,我们从这几个城市来看,他们在一起但是表现也不一样,所以我觉得像中国房地产市场这么大,已经是不同城市东南西北中比较大,更不要说西部和东部城市之间的差别就更大了,不能一概而论,确实现在从一种盲目的带有亢奋的,追求担心不买价格会更贵这样的趋势趋于理性。”    赵赫:“确实当初大家都纷纷职责房价过高的时候,房价还在不管不顾的上涨,现在确实出现了一些新的情况,像你说的珠三角地区已经出现房价下跌的情况,还有一些城市出现了有价无市的状况,对于市场如果出现持续的调整,对开发商意味着什么?”    王石:“房价这样的上涨,已经上涨到中产阶层,就是年收入在6万人民币到20万人民币这样一个阶层,他们已经感觉到买房子非常吃力的时候,这个房市快要出问题了,所以在现在疯涨的情况下,再不抑制住是一定会出问题的,而且感觉到和东南亚的泡沫经济、和日本泡沫经济某个阶段是蛮相似的,所以说这种对他抑制消费,我觉得尽管是行政手段社会上有很多不同反映,我个人认为是非常有必要的。”    赵赫:“前不久万科在深圳和广州有新盘低开的现象,这是对市场的回应吗?”    王石:“这个是从两个方面的回应,第一个我们应该有一个理性的思维,当中产阶层感觉到房子买不起的时候,你就要警惕了,因为这个市场可能要出问题,你要采取一些对策,这是要发展商本身自己要来反映的;第二个是现在宏观大政策形式一定要看清楚,实际上我们消费的类型是有一种二八现象,就是更多财富聚集在20%人手上,他们可能买第二套房、第三套房、第四套房,他们是投资行为,他们本身的住房已经解决了,宏观调控本身是抑制二次购房的时候,按揭准备金的提高、利率的提高会抑制他们购房的,再一个银行也受国家政策影响要开始压缩信贷规模,这个要看到,再一个要有自身风险的思考和市场的判断,就是市场第二次购房、第三次购房作为投资性的,一定是受到很大的抑制,这个时候如果没有对市场的判断,自身会有问题的,本身应该说万科价格的调整,一个是自己的反思,再一个是对宏观调控政策最直接的回应。”    “我觉得这次调整不同以往”    赵赫:“你刚才说的这些是对开发商的良好建议,还是对手中已经握有房子的人士的良言?”    王石:“我觉得对同行更准确一些,因为同行现在还有很多不同看法,很多人认为中国大的层面需求还是非常硬性的,所谓这种调整马上会反弹,因为确实这两年国家政策有这样的情况,调整一次价格上升一次,我觉得这次是不同的,要清醒认识,这个是两方面原因,一个方面是消费者已经承受不住了,这个要清醒的看到,第二个是国家的调整不仅仅是对房地产,整个现在通货膨胀的压力,整个我们的投资热钱多,这一定要货币回笼,要把通货膨胀压下来,当然你房地产首当其冲,如果不看到这样局面的话会麻烦的,再一个应该看到正因为这个市场有这个需求,就是价格调整是非常必要的,而且不要仅仅看到你现在土地价格成本多少,这一年多土地价格累累出现标王,甚至是面粉会贵过面包,这时候让他降价非常痛苦了,如果还是以你原来土地成本价来计算,市场对你是毫不留情的,应该进行调整,再一个应该看到,正因为带有一种盲目的投机性的购房抑制住之后,即使现在应该看到土地供应有限,土地价格的疯涨也就抑制下来了,实际上10月份以来一线城市出现了流标,不是说面粉贵过面包你买不到,而是最后没有人买了,所以土地即使是稀有的也会调整,万科是基于这样的判断进行价格调整。”    “目前性价比不高,三四年后再买房吧”    赵赫:“对于现在已经具备了一些能力,准备要买房子还是处在一种持币观望阶段的时候,这样的人士你有什么具体的建议。”    王石:“我的建议是这样,就我个人来讲,很多人都问我说现在该不该买房子?我说你三四年之后再买吧,三年到四年,为什么,什么意思呢,我不是从价格角度来看,我而是从性能价格比上来讲,因为我认为,性能价格比上来讲,中国和发达工业国家相比,我们这个房子是相当相当不值的,因为你要买房子,长期自己拥有,我建议来讲,因为我相信在三四年之后,因为这几年中国住宅质量一直在改善,你如果和10年前,和20年前相比,有很大的提高,但是和工业发达国家相比,质量上还有很大的缺口,我觉得三四年之后会有比较大的改善,在那个时候去买,不要更多的从价格去买,因为如果是价格,你三四年之后你是一个中产阶层,你存这么多年钱还买不起房子的话,我觉得市场是有问题的,市场一定会被惩罚的,不是惩罚消费者,是惩罚房地产发展商,惩罚社会,当然惩罚当中,高价买了房子的也跟着会贬值。”    赵赫:“应该说这几年社会各界对房地产行业指责还是比较多的。”    王石:“发展商社会形象不好,甚至很多负面的,这也是一种事实,我想首先第一个是它的产品,刚才讲为什么我建议现在不要买房子,就是等两三年之后,很多海归回来,来了说要买房子,我担心价格高,我都给的建议你等个三四年也不晚,它的质量还是有点问题,比如说和家电、汽车制造业相比,和我们的国产品牌和他们质量相比,确实房地产质量还有待大的提高,那你的质量直接决定了你的形象,所以在相当一段时间,在消协那里,投诉量最大的第一就是对房子,差不多是百分之三十几,所以房地产商必须要致力提高自己的质量,不仅仅是建造质量,还有售后服务质量;第二个就是房价,你就是质量改善了,你房价这么高,当然直接利益得主就是你房地产商,把价格抬高了,你得赚大钱,所以这个形象就很不好,一个买不起房,再一个就是,你赚大钱的前提是我买不起房子,当然这个就更恶劣了。”    “我在此声明:2008年之后万科绝不拿地王”    赵赫:“还有说到房价过高,也有很多的开发商会谈到因为土地稀缺,地价在涨,像年内我们土地价格也是屡创新高,有些地方甚至出现了面粉要贵过面包,也就是说,我们的土地要贵过房子,这样的一个现象,这个原因是什么?”    王石:“这个原因简单来说,当然一个是市场大家都看好,对未来的预期,当然对预期极端的看好,所以只能用亢奋这种词来进行形容,但是显然面粉贵过面包的局面不可能持续下去,因为到头来讲,面包吃不起的时候,因为你面粉还要做面包,你不可能亏损卖,当然消费者买不起面包的时候,你卖面包不能说我面粉贵的理由,我一定要卖高价,那你价格还要下来的,所以这样对投资者来讲风险是非常非常大的,之所以日本泡沫经济,我想就是透支未来透支的太厉害,当市场撑不住的时候它就下来了,所以在2007年出现一些地王,出现面粉贵过面包的时候,显然带行政色彩的宏观调控压缩,抑制,带有投机性的投资,显然是非常有必要的,所以我说深圳、广州的价格回落,是从疯狂的上涨到理性的回归,是用这样的字眼来判断现在是什么样的形式,显然这种上涨是不可能持续下去的,如果不一致,可能大家还津津乐道地说,你看我地价拿的贵,你到明年看,房价上涨的更贵,因为他拿的贵,本身他的预期就是房价会更贵,到现在已经涨到中产阶层感觉购买压力很大的时候,显然面粉贵过面包的现象不可能持续,当然土地供应量少,价格上涨这是一个原因,但是构不成这样一个上涨的充分理由,确实需求旺盛,土地供应不足这是现在市场如何来改变现在市场健康发展要面对的问题,但是绝对不构成我土地要贵过房价的理由,个别现象只能是个案,作为普通来讲,这一定会出现问题的,对这个问题,我有一个认识过程,确实在2007年,我们在10个城市地王的地上有两块是万科拿的,一块是在东莞,一块在福州,所以现在造成社会上形象,就是你们这些上市公司寡头垄断、圈钱、高价拿地,反过来再维持高价,为什么有这样的印象,我们要检讨的,所以我借着在中央电视台《经济半小时》这样的栏目上来声明:2008年之后,万科绝不拿地王,也就是说,万科这样的规模来讲,也完全没有必要计较一城一池的得失,完全没有必要靠拿地王的地来竞争,简单来讲,为什么造成这样的印象,我们是有责任的,我们进行检讨,我做个检讨,我们这样拿地来讲,我们显得是我们也多少有点亢奋,对于拿的地价来讲,但确实不是我们的本意,我们要这样来拿高地价,维持高房价,再来我们圈钱,再来高地价维持高房价,这绝对不是我们的意思,但是造成这种印象,我们应该检讨,而且非常明确,我们借此声明,也非常愿意全国的观众消费者来监督万科的行为。”    赵赫:“像香港、日本都曾经出现过楼市泡沫破灭以后,危及到金融领域,进而危及到整个国民经济,在中国我们会不会出现这样的情况?”    王石:“如果不进行抑制,还是疯狂上涨的话,你比如说,从去年到现在,这样的价格上涨,上涨到我感觉是心惊肉跳,实际上万科是上市公司,它每个季度都发表季报的,你从万科今年以来的第一季度、第二季度、第三季度季报上可以看到,季报上都有这样的字眼,就是市场充满激情和亢奋,已经用亢奋这样的字眼了,万科要保持冷静,我们不能追风,我们一定要务实的,坚定不移的走一条比较稳当的开发路线,什么意思,什么叫亢奋,就是已经控制不了自己的往上涨这种趋势继续下去,一定会有问题的。”    赵赫:“非常感谢你今天百忙之中来到我们的演播室和我们一起就当前中国楼市的一些变化作出的一些有意的探讨。”