April 29, 2007

Beat the market - Magic Formula

Yesterday I read the <> basically what the author told in the first several chapters are in syn with my knowledge - view a share as taking a portion of the business, evaluating how much the business worth and how much you would like to pay for it. This is the fundemental principals. It eventually come up with the formula:
1. select 3500 large cap companies, rank them according to earning/(working captial+ net fixed asset) and assign the seq for each
2. rank each of them a number for the EBIT/EV
3. compare the value of number assigned by #1 and #2.

i think it can be used as a first step to filter the stocks, but it also requires detail analysis of the fundemental.
anyway, the formula addresses "Good company" - from #1.

April 07, 2007

902 HUA NENG POWER PE 15

902.HK HUA NENG POWER
Shares: 120.5 y (A+H)
Price: 7.56 => Market Cap = 910 y P/B = 910/418 = 2.17

China GAAP
Profit: 55.5 y EPS = 55.5/120.5 = 0.46 P/E = 7.56/0.46 = 16.4

H – HK GAAP
Profit: 60 EPS = 0.5 P/E = 7.56/0.5 = 15.12

JIANGXI PE 7

0358.HK JIANGXI COPPER
shares in total (A+H+State Owned): 28.9503 y
after issuing new shares: 32y

Profit by seasons: 9.13 + 11.43 + 15+ 15 (estimates) = 50 so EPS = 50/32=1.56

Price Vs PE
10.32 => 6.6
11 => 7.051282
11.5 => 7.371795
12 => 7.692308


Strategy: buy and hold and keep eyes on copper price