January 20, 2007

0732 TRUELY INTL. (C)
overall rate: C

Current market value: 3540m
As of Jan-19-2007, price = 7.55, PE/G = 5.35
Bargain Price: price below 6


earning equity ROE
06 Sep. 496 2341 21%
05 702 1938 36%
04 527 1407 37%
03 193 995 19%
02 104 864 12%

06 earning estimation: 496 * 1.333 = 661m
Reasonable market value: 661 * * (pe=8) + 1019 (NCAV) = 6307m
Reasonable price: 6307/468 = 13.47

John Neff Criteria:
1. Sound balance sheet: B
2. Satisfactory cash flow: C
3. Above average ROE: A
4. able management: unknown
5. prospect of continued growth: unknown
6. Attractive product or service: B
7. A strong market in which to operate: A
8. corporate government: season report

John formula: (earning growth rate + yield)/PE - what you get for what you pay - terminal relationship figure.
(0 + 6.35) / 5.3 = 1.19 < John's fund 2.3

借貸總額為592,000,000港元,其中347,000,000港元須於一年內償還,其
餘則須於兩至三年內償還. 未來三年將用作購置物業、廠房及設備之已授權但未訂約資本支出約20億港元,預期資金
來源大致上來自內部儲備。

務LCD顯示器及相關產品的生產及分銷佔綜合營業額的比率進一步上升至
97%. TFT面板生產線於二零零七年年初投入大規模生產.第三代流動電話即將推出,全球定位系統(「GPS」)獲得中國駕
駛人士廣泛使用,我們相信該重要地區分類將於本集團短期及中期業務及盈利能力增長方
面扮演關鍵角色。

能源價格持續高企、勞工成本及生產開支

Dividend payout trend: go down or stay at 30%.
3-5 year prospect: may same as now
long term prospect: can't foresee

12/2005 12/2004 12/2003 12/2002 12/2001
Current Ratio (X) 1.79 1.95 1.39 1.77 1.42
Quick Ratio (X) 1.34 1.36 0.92 1.24 0.86
Long Term Debt/Equity (%) 12.88 15.86 9.24 7.49 4.10
Total Debt/Equity (%) 22.26 30.07 38.74 28.18 29.60
Total Debt/Capital Employed (%) 19.39 25.65 34.93 25.72 28.45
Return on Equity (%) 36.22 37.40 19.36 12.01 7.29
Return on Capital Employed (%) 31.54 31.90 17.45 10.97 7.01
Return on Total Assets (%) 20.48 21.86 11.13 8.28 5.23
Operating Profit Margin (%) 18.41 17.84 16.69 12.95 9.47
Pre-tax Profit Margin (%) 18.40 17.84 16.74 12.97 9.47
Net Profit Margin (%) 15.35 15.45 13.76 12.12 8.81
Inventory Turnover (X) 8.32 7.65 4.81 5.21 4.18
Dividend Payout (%) 31.14 34.03 43.82 51.35 58.06
Fiscal Year Highest Price (HKD) 12.050 12.200 8.250 3.100 4.325
Fiscal Year Lowest Price (HKD) 7.850 7.500 2.350 2.000 1.600
Fiscal Year PER Range (X) 7.8/5.1 10.4/6.4 19.0/5.4 13.3/8.6 31.4/11.6
Fiscal Year Yield Range (%) 6.1/4.0 5.3/3.3 8.1/2.3 6.0/3.9 5.0/1.8


No comments:

Post a Comment